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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人3 U$ N- R# T& R) f' Y0 s, w3 k
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认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，) z! T5 z! a/ t( c: z
! W% N5 ^$ Q- N# M' d. N而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富- p8 m. } V1 _7 y3 I4 C& T1 i
* \% S. @! K5 t5 H2 I1 O4 I的千禧一代。
7 m5 W( m7 i o$ Z; c从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
0 h: l: ^3 p. r2 T) b+ {6 Q( E0 s% H% O
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“* S! p: F6 [. D% x. r5 L
7 p( G6 o- [8 L* M( k
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加3 n: M$ K0 D, C1 F& k& k; A
, C6 w! H# K7 _, y密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据- q; m# e3 y9 S- S$ I
# K' P1 U# N9 a/ ~7 ]" b
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
$ T3 w& a, [* Z; |/ D
Q! P" H5 c' \8 O* W- ]/ E: }的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》
3 b& o3 e! K" h b& W' g! \& \ s% H2 U) y% [/ b# f
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；2 ~ x* Z) D6 h( \! W
8 L* k- ?4 n- \1 k' b10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
$ a4 O$ |" f/ G* N' I$ e( k# Y m% k: }( U' j& A! R
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。0 ]2 ^! Y7 @9 E; j: _0 k8 m/ H
1 R6 u0 R H$ k据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降
1 Z3 J/ _2 o) t: H/ `) p6 P' u
$ G4 i; V M/ _7 y" b息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
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+ L, b0 |: B% }" [8 e与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密
8 t+ Y8 p( d. ~( F6 @, M& C- G3 y5 g! u1 p* S' L8 V! d
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富# O0 q. Y, s& O, r. F K1 Z% c8 Q
! i$ w5 _6 h$ F3 T" G, v传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
9 O. l+ V9 O! {7 U6 r7 g- n" N. }. q
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一$ \3 P4 O% L2 V! T( o! |
4 y1 a K$ y& G- b) Z9 F
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成
- c. [1 f8 `+ H$ P' h- j7 C \) A# @8 f. M8 [. p, N3 S) x
本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体# @6 k" N$ {8 o
* ]; u* e% g7 k+ z' @系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货* g" h, f9 w9 k$ H4 }0 @4 R `
0 n# U" ]1 w) q6 e. o. z币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
0 |3 |# D6 r$ J4 G Z0 r
9 `: h1 G1 ]- _1 g7 f未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
$ n3 _6 P' ~, t3 S' s8 K: P
$ m* u6 P( y# N& q/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。1 |! T$ x9 e& _2 u* c8 d1 l7 N
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