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& X$ c1 E- G3 _3 E8 ^
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
5 C3 M. c3 E/ [) o- U9 K, YDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
8 Q$ {( A: r. a8 ^; r衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。' k5 q E3 q, ]6 g& R' V& J' w) D
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0
7 l/ c7 ]4 B0 o4 Y; _BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
. o7 Q* Y" K+ s- DPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：: y; D9 b( \ t
2024年4月第四次减半
; X7 s \ s' R" R机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
7 M* G+ C' I# \: ]3 Z8 B5 l可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)" z/ K2 U) w3 h8 q+ J: d% q& O5 R4 h
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
# c# x' j Z, \0 b5 e二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务8 y2 p; a# I& Q/ k6 {3 p$ `
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。, g+ s$ F! f! [3 {4 v7 x
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠
% u$ e# A8 n5 M诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
, H) ^: H3 X& H( a4 B1 ^9 Q三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
9 v3 K" D- X* y除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统
$ r% E" Z [ ]" N6 p$ i4 M0 ?金融(TradFi)产品。. ^" [' T0 |' s
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨+ @1 E9 G) y7 Y8 P! D' `. _* Y1 i
链桥」的项目。
5 T0 X+ F1 E5 S: ~( f四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
. f' n0 q6 s) C- R* A& g$ m模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作
* H6 H/ Y0 d% s4 B$ y% d/ a6 ]3 n等。: G# P: ]1 f4 Q) M0 B
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
* B, I S9 H" l在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。; w- d! ~; ^4 C
五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
, M' C2 s0 d. W$ G5 M1 s1 V9 LPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
# |7 r, P- O+ P$ |9 G$ n数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。) k+ ^' R+ @ G
Pantera点名了几个项目：$ S' V4 L. N: w. x. P3 o1 Y7 R
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图6 E |6 A1 p/ H6 y$ c& w+ P- C. K* r
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台
$ P( c; x, M3 \1 xModulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
4 @1 H0 a8 ^% H) K8 UThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划) r5 d; Q! E+ ^+ V
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游
$ n: T; _/ D h; v% N, U( ~5 T六、小型公链需专注特定应用# [( ?( N% x# l5 y
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
" L! T# \! m* ^% |% k8 }+ ?至能直接与L2竞争。
5 j1 R2 {5 t6 J3 F也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
/ K# H/ s6 c Q9 DPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
: ~6 V$ K* ?/ {1 r1 T# P6 ^成为「应用链」。
7 q4 }% Q0 [! B7 T2 ^事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。' B: m# | d# o% U7 J7 d) e
9 ^( A5 j+ T6 F' J; c1 P |
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