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4 p6 J" Z$ {7 o! U加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为9 T' p+ P% s$ P
DeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
' v9 p6 W6 j I/ N: b衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。) j: @9 _8 |& C% k& @$ Y
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0, Q1 I+ ~4 q; ^! T
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。5 N7 L. m3 j& q8 s' j h
Pantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：; {# o7 V. {) C7 K$ I, J
2024年4月第四次减半
- d3 o+ h& w+ D/ `2 p5 \0 K机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF
, n9 b6 t6 l. P- C( w$ i( u可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)% K# ^7 p. S. q7 _) Z# G7 H- o: p
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
- b0 N4 C5 M! e- Q1 X二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务/ a2 [6 o- P/ C
friend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。( H) r; F! p3 \
Pantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠$ b6 L7 H9 e, Y G$ y& g: Z
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。
F1 y- m6 g$ {' A三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
' ^7 Z9 L1 T$ h9 s) l除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统! V; n, ]0 M2 |4 A% `
金融(TradFi)产品。3 w6 j+ {. O2 d% n4 G1 X: l, W
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨 p8 K C" v: y% X& e
链桥」的项目。2 M5 v# X% {) y2 B! i7 b
四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉
' o+ ?* @) d7 H( N; _2 O% l模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作5 P0 U* F9 B- }
等。
6 l5 j& K1 `8 @% VPantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用/ X" O1 }0 Z% H' D) l# y& C( X
在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
1 m) J/ U6 @8 W4 _/ W; i( r五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN
* [+ e# K( v, ^: e! S- o. cPantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
4 I. E, y4 b% K+ z( @9 q数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。6 B: I: s R+ R
Pantera点名了几个项目：
% O, @/ F. i/ Q) Y. V5 N2 z( a0 YHivemapper：去中心化的Google地图' |. f0 B, ~' s
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台- j. O% [ `4 K: | O% M9 u
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品6 \+ m! t" g# f& h2 c
The Graph：链上知识图谱计划: @) s, H% W4 u0 f# ^
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游% B) {4 a. U/ j p* J
六、小型公链需专注特定应用! _) D& M% J4 m8 {& E
Pantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
5 c+ l2 f7 Z, A6 n) o# r至能直接与L2竞争。
c: x$ D$ q' `3 @- B5 [也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。1 e7 `0 X l- k
Pantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地
- M9 D. r0 D: G成为「应用链」。
; j0 L$ h8 N2 T, x: }事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。
/ N( o1 W. c+ Z, H; F$ y7 w8 U9 ~ G! c; U7 j6 c3 P
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