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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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6 L( r& A! U1 U/ e
+ T8 p5 c( U: Y- V3 u西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
4 @! @, t! K  M% e: @1 \  E, r& ]3 s% b+ |
6 f$ D1 v" `! [$ \* @$ W以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:% t" N: y2 y+ U6 k3 y% D
$ B% C1 {" R; e$ U+ z/ ?
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% " Q/ p7 c2 U" P1 x' ~7 i4 ]5 i

7 F4 K' s# C. M8 H$ A6 w4 J2 ^, c2 ]很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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1 o: S7 J/ y  e5 u. h答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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* @1 N7 l5 y! G& ]( R以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?( N2 Y, h. c6 N, y- D
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盈利可能性
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$ t8 U. r" h' p对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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9 E: `% V# i% C, j7 @* Y6 V* @增值
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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; I+ t7 d5 Q! @, T你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?& o0 w+ B: B' S/ }  }9 j

1 j$ Z7 [+ |3 k8 m( ?( M, ia) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么$ q" y; i9 T. J- L) u% Y. G- A: _

! [7 }/ D( j1 H& d9 {6 w+ l9 t40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
. ?) O! P+ [8 {9 j  U; l# k60%的机会你会一无所有) d- |3 a5 O; y3 ^# H) ]
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
1 F9 S$ ]: r0 H7 \( [由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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5 Y" Q' p+ {: Y" ~3 Y* K6 l增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。6 d5 C6 n+ M% F! F" q% x$ m

6 z4 \$ m9 a2 l6 W- K# R1 L2 n基于增值的投注6 ]9 B2 B! M# K  Z
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。  A, S4 S0 b9 O2 m( K7 y+ x
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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A=博彩资金" W/ N. P0 @4 c& U2 ~8 K
P=获胜机会
6 b# S) ~$ J! k4 f% DO=总获得回报(包括投注本金). ^0 q* f& N* K/ O2 Z( O& g

  t) W7 k8 f& \4 A% n首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。7 ^' j$ o6 d2 c, y+ ]# S! m) E

3 R$ I/ ^+ e8 q- Y$ K好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。
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. H7 n1 X/ V$ {" G% K+ B1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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" r5 S& p; b8 HA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)3 C, I& T2 S& O6 ~; B

4 `5 t8 B/ X& O3 KA=0' d  M. {% ?0 M" e* y
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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: Y& A# ~' G+ Y& c' ?% l( NA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)* s% J) t4 t4 W9 Z
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A=0.13 R, e* o) Q  g# Q3 P
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结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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6 a$ ]$ f) P, v8 {( e1 CA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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* i) K) h) e! w4 i9 v6 [6 ~A= -0.2
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/ T6 S, z7 z( [" t) f9 ~! Y# P结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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3 t5 G; S9 W/ `: L3 s2 p5 z第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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