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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。
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* k2 P9 u0 G' F- T( m, F! s, f( y西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率+ d) R e/ o4 _) e
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以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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! }* c* c! M$ O; q; t+ _% }皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
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很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?" G6 x+ S% S( F
4 k/ s/ G( S" @ l5 B答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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" R- `2 \' D h( k0 t: S' x7 W以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?, ^, @$ w; @- A$ Q
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! ^, A! ^5 ]2 n2 B7 }盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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) B( x ~- U/ ?增值9 a9 j) t. @$ a1 }, y2 t# H9 D
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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' `+ ^! O6 ~. @- k你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5 ( n3 r9 d+ s" z7 L6 o: c- n, r; }
" i; E8 X3 O: q9 w. v T% q9 w4 s正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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, |7 t& d) Y* A Q4 }$ A! k. f40%的机会你会收到150元的利润5 q% U! ~3 v- z& z: f0 `) r
60%的机会你会一无所有9 e+ A: {- I) |4 r/ M4 `1 z N
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 8 W5 i1 w5 t4 Y) L& U8 y0 Z
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。" a$ C+ t+ g( D& Z" D+ G
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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( t: J' h3 v7 a& [基于增值的投注
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0 L2 G$ a, Y+ C2 m) w/ m" A( y/ D凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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2 v9 [0 t9 V; R1 Y2 ~# d公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1) H' ^0 `, [2 B! Q- m4 I( q
+ V) Y3 W; P) I0 }A=博彩资金
5 | C/ P+ `- D+ x; D: D# }" BP=获胜机会* H: L" I- k; U X P+ D: w
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)1 H2 E$ l/ @ |& L4 [- ~7 _! O$ V
! l, S$ |0 t- R' K. U M' e- \首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。) b5 E/ Y6 R& o; Y7 d
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。5 ^, i, h7 N$ `% C4 R
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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A=0* `( u$ D! g) e/ K7 |+ D# V* K
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结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3): T8 d4 J1 l/ H% Q9 h" n
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)3 q7 p. i. P* i2 h
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A=0.1
I+ @+ {/ E! p( j |) j
8 L1 r4 H4 e3 P* b" X结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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# ]3 `& ~ x, i0 P* FA= -0.2 . ?2 K$ W: L; Z) [6 l
1 p; G+ X5 z% ?0 C结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好0 d- P- y7 M) ~& W
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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