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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 $ a9 ?6 ~" M% |7 Z5 B
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
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开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72$ W7 k% r# Y; A) {" h; [# S
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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% T6 H* I5 C  R2 F( }% q收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.52 p# S+ ~* C! g/ a# }
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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;2 r; e5 p% [! Q* T: T
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加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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以上,76gor5 S/ r9 t( C6 M
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我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;: q% X% r' `. G6 C% E
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
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$ F6 w7 ^. E' \* @. i一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000# ~- a3 Q/ e$ F# h
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152
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假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500+ e6 j1 q0 X2 U* z  j, }

4 L. j) r% z$ e% s: G' D每天净收入为:¥652
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年收入为:¥237,980/ A5 u+ `, i3 T
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唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;; F) o9 o0 k  }
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor ( H' U$ w! g# w
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   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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感谢76分享阿
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?5 H+ `; a4 p5 M: F
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,! o) f4 c, I- y; ]3 l, F- s0 e/ i4 m
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24

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) t4 N" {3 H; j+ A3 F; H    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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楼主分析得好厉害啊
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刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
( t) t$ X* h. n! g6 |76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54

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! p( B6 D2 [5 k2 V: I! j楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏$ o  }7 ]; m1 B
大概是1%多点
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至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
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% _0 ]' \* u4 b至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
8 S" D2 @% A% p' Itaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27

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2 {( C2 ~" L. I& ^! b$ I    请指教
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楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?" x) r/ [0 y6 i' ?/ B) e
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

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; t5 n0 v9 }0 t* i6 H! ]9 W    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor
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* |: t- a% C3 x: h( `0 ^, q! @   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor
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, `( X: |8 B) K/ v' P; m   有个风险就是豹子吧!8 d6 Q# \9 J4 v) U: J
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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$ i) I8 L6 I- p+ p    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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