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认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
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1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑 7 N: h. Q2 [: S

, J5 p7 P" B: ~$ {& F刚刚认真计算了一次;
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假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:
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开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;% H2 _9 f4 }$ I+ F) M0 f$ \5 m

. ]! e6 H9 D/ r! G, V; ^7 M开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
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开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
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收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5' v8 I/ A9 q7 x% M

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所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
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& C* B( N  ]4 \9 T加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;
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以上,76gor7 t- e4 H# x% g# T" ?
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2#
我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;
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假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,+ c* g1 e, G* s6 z
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一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000# A' ~, |' O& L2 F, m' X+ }1 W
每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152; y0 p& L8 g! E& R; ]( h
+ }# }$ a* `' K6 ?8 T8 Q0 ?
假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥5003 r- [# F1 S+ C  B( q( P7 i
+ {6 f0 g4 i. `- U) f
每天净收入为:¥652
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% o; Q* w, {. O. n' G7 j年收入为:¥237,9808 w6 o& n* T& ]& q9 T
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唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;
- f" Q; _5 R( \唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
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回复 2# 76gor $ ?  B/ `, }5 Q0 S! I+ B. m

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3 V: u+ ^6 u3 V9 S' U  X   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
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4#
感谢76分享阿
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
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6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
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最近流行探讨这个话题?, S7 G! z/ ?- k7 q( A$ D, X6 Y
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22

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    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
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哈哈,楼主被误导了,) q, }9 v7 x( G4 X7 F  |! Z
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
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: c" d0 A5 J1 U    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
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9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
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10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
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11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;
3 {: V* t: D' z8 t8 u
3 s3 B) t1 \" C" A. P假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:$ `: f) t4 e7 P! Y9 u: h! }
* c, y( ?2 Y* m& ~9 ]+ |) M7 l
开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
) z- i, P1 ~( P( L$ d+ X0 F* V76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
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5 S  g/ E! J8 M6 A  V0 Z0 q  e3 o5 m9 L4 D

  j! Z1 o% E; L/ U3 u6 Q楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
; J  C5 a$ ]; W( C大概是1%多点
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* v7 p( e; e0 E, f4 ]至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
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12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏
, x) B: h8 x, h1 o大概是1%多点
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# e& }( G* B' K+ a$ P. h至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...7 b4 F: A5 C, V- G% z8 `1 ]2 h
taishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
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    请指教
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13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
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14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
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15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?' _; d7 C* W/ U1 u
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26
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4 O- @; B% C5 T% S; f6 P    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
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回复 15# 76gor & O# U. ?: y$ l* C4 |" I' A" [" v
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/ T  r/ B: Z) W3 V0 e   有个风险就是豹子吧!
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回复  76gor - K1 c! f# f# m6 C9 {+ f
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   有个风险就是豹子吧!
; c8 t/ N: q% I  U' S粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30
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& a5 ~" {9 u6 f2 Z. X; _$ l4 B  ]  i( U4 ]4 n* p) L! t
    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
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