Array
(
[fid] => 6728
[description] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!
[password] =>
[icon] => 7c/common_6728_icon.png
[redirect] =>
[attachextensions] =>
[creditspolicy] => Array
(
[digest] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 0
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 1
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 3
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 加精华
[action] => digest
[fids] => 6966,6903,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[post] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 5
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 1
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表主题
[action] => post
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
[reply] => Array
(
[usecustom] => 1
[cycletype] => 1
[cycletime] => 0
[rewardnum] => 0
[extcredits1] => 0
[extcredits2] => 0
[extcredits3] => 0
[extcredits4] => 0
[extcredits6] => 0
[extcredits5] => 0
[extcredits7] => 0
[extcredits8] => 0
[rid] => 2
[fid] => 6728
[rulename] => 发表回复
[action] => reply
[fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6866,6969,6891,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6824,6815,6937,6943,6970,6869,1121,6934,6903,6974,6944,6958,6929,6874,6894,6765,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6900,6902,555,6783,6799,6845,6895,6817,1111,6873,6870,6821,6951,6879,6876,6948,6904,6950,6956,6862,6886,6957,6779,6907,6855,6945,6952,6954,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6960,6953,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728
)
)
[formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";}
[moderators] =>
[rules] => 1）发布主题帖+1经验+1活跃币，回贴+10华小分
2）Lv.1及其以上级别会员可以发布主题帖，Lv.1及其以上会员可以回帖
4）转帖请在主题上标明
5）禁止发布与本版块无关的主题（违反，帖子转移到相关版块，并扣50经验）
6）禁止回复与主题无关的帖子（违反，帖子删除，并扣10经验）
[threadtypes] => Array
(
[required] => 1
[listable] => 1
[prefix] => 1
[types] => Array
(
[137] => 体育菠菜玩法规则
[138] => 体育菠菜心得方法
[139] => 体育菠菜问题咨询
)
[icons] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
[moderators] => Array
(
[137] =>
[138] =>
[139] =>
)
)
[threadsorts] => Array
(
)
[viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 81 83 84 87 89 90 91 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 92
[postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 67 68 73 75 76 83 84 87 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 92
[spviewperm] =>
[seotitle] =>
[keywords] => 足球,篮球,体育,规则,打法
[seodescription] => 理论知识,玩法技巧,专业术语解释,迈向体育菠菜高手的摇篮!<br /><a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/thread-51289-1-1.html" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜新人必看】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=33" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜规则】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=34" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜心得】</font></a> <a href="http://www.hrceluebbs.com/forumdisplay.php?fid=6728&filter=type&typeid=100" target="_blank"><font color="red">【体育菠菜问题咨询】</font></a>
[supe_pushsetting] =>
[modrecommend] => Array
(
[open] => 0
[sort] => 0
[orderby] => 2
[num] => 10
[imagenum] => 5
[imagewidth] => 200
[imageheight] => 150
[maxlength] => 0
[cachelife] => 900
[dateline] => 0
)
[threadplugin] => Array
(
)
[replybg] =>
[extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:0:"";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";}
[jointype] => 0
[gviewperm] => 0
[membernum] => 0
[dateline] => 0
[lastupdate] => 0
[activity] => 0
[founderuid] => 0
[foundername] =>
[banner] =>
[groupnum] => 0
[commentitem] =>
[relatedgroup] =>
[picstyle] => 0
[widthauto] => 0
[noantitheft] => 0
[noforumhidewater] => 0
[noforumrecommend] => 0
[livetid] => 0
[price] => 0
[fup] => 6831
[type] => forum
[name] => 体育知识讲座
[status] => 1
[displayorder] => 5
[styleid] => 0
[threads] => 2735
[posts] => 23139
[todayposts] => 0
[yesterdayposts] => 0
[rank] => 113
[oldrank] => 113
[lastpost] => 125127 升降盘理论 1741350473 france89
[domain] =>
[allowsmilies] => 1
[allowhtml] => 1
[allowbbcode] => 1
[allowimgcode] => 1
[allowmediacode] => 0
[allowanonymous] => 0
[allowpostspecial] => 1
[allowspecialonly] => 0
[allowappend] => 0
[alloweditrules] => 0
[allowfeed] => 0
[allowside] => 0
[recyclebin] => 1
[modnewposts] => 2
[jammer] => 1
[disablewatermark] => 0
[inheritedmod] => 0
[autoclose] => 0
[forumcolumns] => 0
[catforumcolumns] => 0
[threadcaches] => 0
[alloweditpost] => 1
[simple] => 16
[modworks] => 1
[allowglobalstick] => 1
[level] => 0
[commoncredits] => 0
[archive] => 0
[recommend] => 0
[favtimes] => 0
[sharetimes] => 0
[disablethumb] => 0
[disablecollect] => 0
[ismoderator] => 0
[threadtableid] => 0
[allowreply] =>
[allowpost] =>
[allowpostattach] =>
)
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 2650 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑% G) u6 q8 {- Q' P
* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c; Y$ g) d& g% E) X9 d" W o) g, G
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
2 G2 J& z. Y) a; u# d1 ^ M9 c; {6 i {5 Z4 {! J" z( t$ t, y3 Y
G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)6 d& _( w& q$ b/ @9 n1 }! }! u \
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [ Q$ J0 _2 ]( M
a- \5 D5 [' ?# N% }! p& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h7 o; a0 Z& ^+ H" a
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ : z$ O& d% q" x! d: K+ w, g
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s- P- e6 m7 C, K4 j/ F! A
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
' z1 ? ]# n. g4 j; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d. O j- {0 B+ u+ y |7 F5 _9 ^
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
! M& P6 \5 c2 ?4 n [
8 q' l0 G" X7 k1 w; n(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
; T9 T. \" e1 z$ q0 o& O
L* X/ {. {5 w8 T7 Y0 b1 [(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
9 ~* [1 j. @* F- M. P7 s) J
3 g7 F4 }9 Q! A# f(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
$ T+ M7 ?& x8 \/ b* h- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _3 e7 q1 ~) L2 y [7 V$ B& y: K: @5 q
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ' T. }/ B$ Q" f4 x$ ?! B' F
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c, ]2 W' ^6 [, R- y$ A$ e$ @2 J
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
6 R2 f7 }' f2 {
( J1 F6 c& _) I# P$ _S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
8 }6 Q5 s, X% n8 n8 g% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
7 i# U1 B# k f0 _/ B1 V" VS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
5 M7 A, ~3 k3 n- \" I, d9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j1 f9 p I7 @' E, b# M# E
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \ O# Q! T4 {+ ? b& m! J' a
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
4 B0 e) _( V3 ]# ^1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 * P1 k! v; E ?% n2 t
' O* c/ l; o1 H) f+ Y6 E% h
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l: c4 _6 r5 `. z
d D% d: W5 X# ^
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q' s3 Z* w# p! d, R
5 l. D; ]$ S2 s4 l* ?0 \/ F1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
5 u2 {; d/ R7 N) g& R8 b# L4 P: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r1 i s# ^; N5 u/ d7 c7 l! L& R% _, Y
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T- H: p r7 x! N. d. b5 n
: @" z8 j; r3 p, g
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
; t# U3 H. E' n( E2 n$ t6 B9 S% C. ]2 a- V* [) k- u4 U8 x: v' c
S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; & |7 ^# N+ |" l/ h0 x
& d4 g: Q+ v+ i* FS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
7 H- W( U3 X8 X# u' L2 Q* t; m' V% T, u, P% O
; o5 U6 b# E+ e4 }- {S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 / k/ g8 _; t0 T. \$ ?, c
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a7 T Z$ O8 c6 @
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 X7 y# `! Y6 f& K% r! B
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
' q- N; e7 h# Z T# _. h. d! Q4 t(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o0 I: d# ?3 F$ n) ]# i1 n* Y- [
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
4 o+ Z! t" b9 y( h好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 ) S" Y J) P/ i2 a& Q
) q( ], k9 L T& t
3 x# s( f# ~, J2 I# y1 d+ NB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 8 B6 u* D0 B/ w5 g9 i
5 g+ W& H; U. d4 [, x/ a5 h* gF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
; S9 O9 H5 r" R0 m) f) [- j, Y+ C- b# ^' c# j! O# a
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?* K# e- M; x: A/ e
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {/ u2 G+ G/ m( W: r
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
]1 h: g1 o( b* |+ D$ n) P# X# M
% ?; V* ]% X, N* M2 b- bG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 ; A- a, d: F7 V
& `+ g7 q+ }) w: A
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
o5 k* g. s' M! W Q8 f% `& Z& L A! F: R7 j: y/ N
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
3 @4 |5 c) X% S" X* H5 u% A5 G8 M6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i/ P/ b9 _/ N7 T2 q8 U
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 814 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 5814 小时
本月在线: 18 小时
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 13572 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
当前离线
经验:
天策币:
活跃币:
策小分:
总在线: 100 小时
本月在线: 0 分钟
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
