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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑4 L6 z8 r. z2 X$ k* P( l$ A
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凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k7 o2 ]! T- j5 r1 e. N
- R3 s, J" t9 u. H0 C. U0 K7 gG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)) b/ o3 h8 c0 S. i. i( X# {+ q* l
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [8 }4 C2 W: b: { W4 q1 B+ u; j
8 b% I/ L# V8 w; x* _& f. @& F( }
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h. Q; A( g w0 E) U
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ % }" ~* k6 j+ K# {' {
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
. d% h/ k3 x2 C/ `( X% A) D. u* a, y做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
% ?& f; i9 I3 E! C' T; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
% X- a* u5 C' n `4 W% g(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
5 w$ ^! r1 a. [( X- R! M/ P. \
(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
7 x( O7 n) o0 Y
6 N, H7 @ @/ j8 S1 j(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t1 |# q% c' f/ x( T1 ?/ q* o
# _7 N+ z% q. Z) G! S5 v& i
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
8 v- X$ c% G) e9 U2 y- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
6 m2 W0 N( Y( V( r我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 : V! |/ |+ L$ ]" j1 b2 t$ h
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
& O: D4 N& G2 @3 |8 eS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
% f- I) K! c: j9 o! ]- a9 m% |( P/ D. }$ F" _
S2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
2 b4 z! `0 o% h% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s l, K) h- K! d2 G
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 & i' @% G" ~. r2 v9 a/ F
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j/ z" ?; T0 O) j* B- [* W5 B! g: R, p
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
8 s; i* H3 @0 N; r0 v( A8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
( F8 Y4 S# l7 v- w6 ?7 Z1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91 7 T# i o) [" r" X
6 O. ^6 ?1 U$ m! _' u4 x1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
9 Y" w: B- X- D# N5 g- T
5 b1 u1 @ v! k4 v6 i1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q1 e2 k6 R7 ]0 ~. ~6 V# W- D/ c
9 X& S" g1 L$ a6 N. o8 O7 u$ m2 D1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90 / c3 S. u' Z9 C+ u
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S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
1 H6 o/ `0 G" {) ]
. h4 n( ]( Q, ]! o; K, i: c类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
7 p- m2 q2 ~6 M" P1 K
# r9 [8 j M0 \4 ?7 H! H4 d! IS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; ) U2 L# f# F& j: S: b
# y# G+ t1 E! o: O' m5 OS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
# J$ r! z- J- P B; m' V% T, u, P% O4 Y7 C4 m: G+ j2 S# }/ f
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
2 x0 w. i q g1 L: } b2 s6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
: X$ U: \# G8 H8 j7 ^5 G- @& qS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 ; R7 [, }* e- h l2 ^, P' W
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
7 F) T' J, H! q: n$ Y(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
9 o4 S! ]5 t) A/ t. {. d6 r* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
w5 S( ^+ y( A: l( Z好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
9 W7 \' J, M( F0 L. N, a% ]) q( ], k9 L T& t
2 k6 `' _9 e+ A. A) PB'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 ( O' ^3 N3 t4 j! S
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F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 & Y* m7 g- R6 d3 ^2 ?# s
5 ^( R0 m' n9 g$ H+ [; K于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?3 ^; D* e% W `5 y o% p6 Q
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {) Q# n! g8 G, s. h8 a. f
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
9 ~7 T7 ]5 {9 f0 H; k( w! x+ D$ n) P# X# M* u, c0 X- K. Z% A
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
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G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
( U: }! w+ P8 v7 V. e3 G- I) y
; B# W" C3 u4 n; @当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \
5 i; u! m4 K; j' h M: v6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i4 T8 R. S# K' j4 ^4 Q1 H: w
通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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