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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 . \3 d! n9 D0 E) L5 \
余勋也不例外、
t5 U' g! ~7 v3 Y其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。 : W$ O7 N* j0 }( {7 x4 F
是保经济的重要决策！
, R+ S- @9 K! y' A* f; `+ T这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、
1 D. J( U- P; h( A! B+ i低点26700-32400、 6 }/ k" m& f1 W% c9 m
反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
, Y; V, x3 Z# ^! v; q7 e但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
5 s* e: B7 W1 h/ G6 ^1 x$ [0 m) P. n大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 8 R/ N" O' g" @2 ]* k, N3 N" I$ A
涨幅就已回撤过半！
) @* l' N" ]0 y. }6 O* X所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
8 P0 b& Q. c* l9 l2 _不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 - W9 R: K- ]0 L; {
其次、 ! i0 W/ f3 C8 G3 S: ]9 |6 y
缩表大致会延续至2024年初、 ( G' R4 x8 W% R4 n3 X1 R# V/ P
每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 5 J2 R L& i2 ~. e& B8 \9 w
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
8 L4 G) }. _* [) {; T' _6 A+ N美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。
B; |6 J( B9 \, T* L: D但回到币圈、
. t9 `* o$ r- L- O5 j- ]去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、
6 K% H; y( Q x6 z/ s3 M/ D6 ?在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 : R* m5 G& { J& S
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
6 H( ?) J" Q8 W) o8 }个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
, o' J2 o/ g0 m" b+ o( N& `缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。 % [3 \& ^& ^0 X& x% F0 I3 }- W
对当前的底部、影响有限。
8 V/ o" Z6 z5 d0 Z7 q- O' W最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 - l. v' w( _' Z
所以27000、即是
4 j; t7 T U1 j去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点） S# `0 e/ V: L; l/ A8 U, m7 S
同时还是去年放水初期低点、 7 T0 ^2 C+ w1 `" a: D- U
也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
' N* E) }* h3 M) z5 b9 i由此得出的结论是、
7 Q# G9 I( j/ S5 f- ]加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 5 o; B6 N- {6 S4 s* G! `
点位不会出现太大偏离。 * O) \, H' P t; ]4 i
综合以上、
' O( ~7 A' B8 G1 Z/ x/ w/ F) {8 l美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、 ' {8 c% \1 Y9 V, y
在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。
( f* K. ]; J1 X# Q4 Z6 x Q: K那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、
8 ~: n( V9 p' B3 s4 b2 L0 f" Z% t0 e抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。
; f) w6 N/ n( P6 e4 k那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。 + U$ E7 t; K& W% M& [/ [. m6 A
即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
O1 n, T q. H. H$ l2 o8 K美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。 ! T5 Q# K) V/ A( r# m, s
夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。 6 I& L: { H* |* X n
大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
; M% |0 O% ^: L2 D逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。
% y+ P. b9 d$ r% N# B高空需至31700-32000间布局、
% x2 T" S V8 K+ u反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
- X; |+ w: x5 {) e2 m% `得不偿失。 6 G- Y" v; I6 c$ C+ m0 ?
来源：金色财经 |
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