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[虚拟币资讯]
币世界余勋6.2 缩表为弥补去年放水 而放水初期低点其实就在5.19两万七 长线以此为据
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在大部分人认为6月的50加息+缩表、基本在5月的下行中、得到有效释放、 2 O7 V( V+ p0 C3 {* ^, Q
余勋也不例外、
9 r! _ D9 ]" G! N+ d其中最关键的是美联储26号纪要、会灵活对待加息。
" F! }1 P9 `- Y, j- E" f/ l6 d6 G是保经济的重要决策！ + k: x; x; S' h0 S& R
这其中美股迎来了阶段连涨、大饼也四连阳、 1 k7 D! X V; x
低点26700-32400、
7 M2 V$ v: B9 H3 J0 Q4 S! {反弹近六千点、以太低点反弹近300点。
$ e; K( v2 D3 S& E但仅仅在缩表两个交易日、
r0 j# m, s8 z. _; Q/ ^大饼回撤幅度达到三千点、以太近200点。 1 {4 ]* ~- ~4 U! X- k7 r0 ?+ i
涨幅就已回撤过半！
. Z' `9 C2 o7 y9 V所以暂时来看，期待的靴子落地效应基本告吹。
) ^# F/ q/ R6 H) @( ]3 k' f不是利空没有得到释放、是市场做多情绪无法调动。 ' V! N$ y A6 ~/ v7 ?
其次、
- F+ E5 H! ?. @* t缩表大致会延续至2024年初、
7 K* K- O; n `5 f每月950亿、直至达到1.5万亿美元、 0 O- l, c3 ~1 R5 m
等于说、这期间会持续在蓄水池中进行抽水。
! C: g2 P1 D4 ]( P$ L7 Z美股想大肆上行也是有心无力。 _' U7 v1 c0 ]0 r* U4 Y1 R
但回到币圈、 4 f; c+ c' Q9 K. x2 T% P
去年牛市因5.19去中心化大跌、 ! B! i' x8 B; ]: O8 g
在27000附近。美联储大幅度在放水、迎来第二轮周期牛市。 # H/ ~2 |, P8 c& E* N
而现在弥补这个放水漏洞、而行情其实已经在放水底部附近。
" m. \! t4 ~9 K+ ?个人认为、在经历了加息初期、中期恐慌、
' T2 P. I, F- V) h9 Y2 l缩表虽是实质利空，但终究是缓慢的。
3 |2 H# P1 u: R0 @4 e6 A4 u! z) c, | l对当前的底部、影响有限。 + R1 Q( f6 ^ O; l% E: c6 }
最不济、缩表启动至结束、行情依然处于放水初期币圈阶段。也就是当前27000-30000附近。 ' K& a- S# \- |* s& l; [8 a
所以27000、即是
5 p% [4 Q' ]3 j* O% p去年5.19低点、也是今年5.12（加息50基点+缩表恐慌低点）
6 c4 h7 K U( V# J: N同时还是去年放水初期低点、
s1 ~- e7 y7 u0 n- ]( P也会是今年缩表弥补去年放水周期的低点。
: b# O" O8 ?0 N6 f2 }1 S由此得出的结论是、
# e/ T$ [+ d, d: R* ~加息+缩表等实质利空、市场年度最大创伤、底部就在27000附近、而以太就在1700附近。 - u9 H5 S! g: Z+ j) _% p
点位不会出现太大偏离。 " b$ M T$ A* T# e- L4 F
综合以上、
; ?" H$ Q3 G" ~+ P美股逐渐消化了加息、也开启缩表缓慢抽水、
) y" T2 @ E% F S4 r% S7 I: b在整个运行过程中、会由初期的恐慌、缓慢下行，逐渐适应、止跌、然后徐徐补涨。 $ K: ^$ v* E* F$ a3 U4 Q
那操作上、无非缺乏了长线效应、 ) M ]/ B* h, o
抬头大肆上涨、条件匮乏！下行、最大利空由当初的注水点、再到完全调离这些注入资金。低点其实也都在这附近。 , ~( ]! a4 e+ A
那行情其实还是围绕三万点、进行弱势整理。
& |8 I$ a6 |+ Z$ Q$ |即难深跌、也难大涨，直至缩表有效、通胀得到控制。
# j9 K& Y6 K. [ g5 Y, O美股适应上行、市场逐步接受开始回暖。
6 F. w; ?* ?4 G7 ^$ a8 R$ j! ~夜间美股走势平平、虽弱但不跌。
w! o1 I* T5 d4 X, _- j: I大饼无需追空、给一空间点位、
( Z) p. A! a" b6 L逢28000附近、以太1720附近可做短线接多点。 1 B9 ^3 N8 E7 ~0 E4 S
高空需至31700-32000间布局、
! N! j) d3 \8 a4 u8 W! K反之、空间不够、进场始终趋于震荡区中轨、
V. C1 a; S9 P& p1 d得不偿失。
2 i& h) k$ ^0 Q4 j% ?- ]来源：金色财经 |
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