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?0 E8 m/ I4 w
加密风投Pantera合伙人Paul Veradettakit在CoinDesk发表2024年六大预测，他认为
' `' O0 Z, u* ]! b7 IDeFi热潮将会在比特币上复活，迎来DeFi2.0；而在比特币现货ETF的加持下，传统金融也会更频繁与DeFi互动，
! Q" k" U3 j# x r+ d/ A J' _衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨链桥」的项目。) o7 `- F0 M5 t' q3 ^$ ~
一、比特币复兴迎来DeFi2.0! l; M z1 L3 S# e
BTC市占率自年初的38%升至年底的50%，加上铭刻的火热程度，都让BTC再次重回投资者视野。
3 b9 _2 T% [- Q9 [8 p0 u/ oPantera认为BTC明年至少有三个主要催化剂以推动复兴：# N, p; f" l7 g
2024年4月第四次减半8 y5 M" p3 y l
机构投资者预计将批准多个比特币现货ETF, a* \ x& I# z; O& P1 h. x
可编程功能的强化，包括Ordinals协议及L2及扩容方案(如Stacks和Rootstock)2 Z2 x7 z* A5 e& i; ]* U
针对第三点，Pantera预测会有更多以太坊DeFi协议移植到比特币上，迎来DeFi2.0。
2 ~ [7 c& O5 P1 }" T: N, q4 N二、链上新应用：代币化社交服务
* \+ e; L5 P9 F6 _1 ifriend.tech等社交应用通过与Twitter账户整合，成功为SocialFi领域衍生出一种新的代币经济模型。
3 _8 n. Y( z$ k$ z# nPantera预期，未来在社交领域会有更多实验，代币化将会发挥关键作用，同质化代币(Fungible Token)能成为忠9 J7 m/ \0 a, v" o3 b* x
诚度积分的新形式，而NFT则更可能成为个人的社交资料及资源。" [0 D0 Y1 M: @/ h
三、传统金融、DeFi互动更频繁
& W/ A5 e) k7 [+ R2 t Z除了预测比特币现货ETF的通过能让机构采用率大幅增加外，Pantera认为机构会进一步寻求代币化的RWA及传统7 ]8 w% s1 r! M* |+ q
金融(TradFi)产品。, F; ?& R" h5 Z" F1 p9 t* U
如同此前BTC以WBTC映射、跨链至以太坊，TradFi资产也会更频繁地与DeFi互动，进而衍生出「TradFi-DeFi跨
* Y+ N3 Y+ U! _9 l) i& o" O链桥」的项目。
0 k1 r8 M. v0 ?! y, c四、模组化区块链和零知识证明的交叉授粉1 ]2 q+ w) p! Y# n+ |+ i7 N
模组化区块链和零知识证明都在过去一年中取得大幅进展，如近期的Celestia主网、Espresso的Arbitrum协作6 [# y' A2 ^5 G! S/ M9 a# E
等。$ `; Q8 ?$ U$ z) y& M
Pantera认为这两种技术的结合在未来会是一个有趣趋势，而在消费者相关的应用中，零知识证明可能会更多应用
: r1 x1 P3 h7 Z4 Z% ^: L在身份保护、隐私项目中，例如基于ZK的去中心化数字身份。
3 {& J7 f, f6 o五、更多计算密集型应用上链，如AI、DePIN0 Z2 x2 d, R, G o% g
Pantera指出链上费用过高等扩容问题已获得解决，以太坊L2的Gas费用低于0.02美元，Solana则更低了几个位
9 W* F1 r0 l6 h数，因此能预计未来一年内，需要大量计算资源的计算密集型应用，在链上运行将变得更加经济可行。
" _2 v' {& {: ], d" x5 b) P# k4 SPantera点名了几个项目：5 l/ L4 ~% Z! R9 a! ^3 f4 n q
Hivemapper：去中心化的Google地图, F2 l" k) `. T9 c3 X
Bittensor：去中心化机器学习平台; _# g6 u- c' ` R2 ?
Modulus Labs：AI生成NFT艺术品
8 u: d2 m0 w2 _# I* D; zThe Graph：链上知识图谱计划* E5 d u, |; I( G; f, N' s
Realmsverse：Starknet上的链游$ [+ ]+ D; H6 f
六、小型公链需专注特定应用
' ^; ?0 Q' O0 Z2 k6 k4 lPantera最后提到了公链的竞争情况，实际上L1、L2对使用者体验而言并没有太大区别，Solana、Avalanche甚
I( |* t( L1 I* ?5 A9 m4 i; a至能直接与L2竞争。 `4 X# B1 R/ L: i# X
也由于性质相同，Ethereum、BNBChain等五大公链就已锁定总TVL的80%。
; I3 ]6 a4 ~# T( `- O$ z6 g- o. tPantera认为，生态较小的公链必须将精力集中在特定的垂直领域(如社交、游戏、DeFi)以保持优势，从而有效地( D; l2 K, @0 k* b# ?" ^% L) M
成为「应用链」。: E* b5 \$ F8 {8 ^8 @+ J$ R
事实上TVL排名前10的L2中，dydx、Loopring、Ronin都已经是专注单一垂直领域的应用链。% O4 K* R0 C1 f$ B- Q' j
2 G4 U2 ?4 z. J& r0 w9 f. f |
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