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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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) r3 ]* ?# D4 n$ x+ c" ^0 b& T2 L瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心7 ]/ k! C1 m; Q, t$ _+ t' z
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衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”& G6 z& h3 f8 J0 y! g
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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% E1 ?: s$ [+ L) q6 q融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。$ b! I' r& Q6 e# q
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过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益 u3 a; r9 s! d2 F
2 z; J$ B8 T4 _3 I) ?7 b$ I2 o7 }6 m率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。, B* y$ v* T% F: r9 i
, W9 R' u# M0 E6 g$ Y6 D, j4 N M然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国& F9 k3 f& [) n7 T) j
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长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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/ n) p- s3 m7 ]是表示：
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; h$ |/ Y$ R- O: Q, E, b* m( v1 W这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。' N7 ^- u3 l/ c& L( ?7 j# M1 ~3 ~
6 B* c1 T0 K9 G7 N. L历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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9 y: S7 {6 M! Y, g- w周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。* ^- R( w3 _& M5 {3 r
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债
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收益率冲高回落。
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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+ E5 q( W, _; K; m; C% ]* J5 R' B. {周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，
; m2 E% W* v! ?$ r% x& n) |
0 q4 O6 W( ]% w# A+ j% A2 ~3 e: s是的，这正是我们所看到的。"# [' J( R2 M Q) p$ u. k- F6 {
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。! U B2 G+ S* Y& }3 j! }; l
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' {9 m" T$ L: G5 Y; f- q! NRenaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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