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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
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瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
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: K2 S' J: j) g衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”. N8 X% w/ g* ]2 k, |
美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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+ z: |! `" j# F* u2 [; @% }融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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+ e# i) V2 R6 v) @过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。. F# V) I& A9 d& Q$ O, V
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然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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# {9 l0 t2 w# A# u1 U长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更7 T3 O# W! E' P" _
6 l. s; J9 y" _ e+ J" j8 `& S是表示：
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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9 D* g$ g8 C, }: G" c. j历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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0 w: g7 l. |8 C3 i* j8 n标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。. B% p0 a5 w* {# v; ~
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周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。
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$ Y5 j3 [1 O! [; @% w6 H* y周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债9 \$ m! K; n1 ~2 ?1 M
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收益率冲高回落。- ^$ G% R4 g; o
* b$ t3 @2 }& n3 v) V# I, o+ P周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
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1 Y6 }4 U! h. R周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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/ n" ^& M8 O- \7 SLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，! j9 a7 e- \# L/ f: Q
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。"% {4 ^4 r8 n9 ~) _6 k% F
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去
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0 }# t) S* O9 U/ `8 i" X年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。: f) `2 H% D6 c# x( r. _% Y: E
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"& I1 R7 u. X# @# d% [. A
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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