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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑
9 |8 ~; q. @6 z& V+ Z0 `4 N$ t5 y% g ?2 |6 u: _# [$ y8 D, C1 y) u
其实原文标题不是这样的0 }+ c% J; D, m
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
: S+ F/ i/ Y5 _7 \% R3 b他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
0 }% S) F" W' ^$ [+ S( D3 v
# l3 [$ M' [ r, }) a: ~. S& c 「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。
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「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」& F' b, {8 z2 l
% @! f3 _5 W9 q. \& \& Z
「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 9 ^* p2 `5 G# y1 e
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」2 D' H+ t3 L1 M! Y/ K, I6 Y
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上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。
^) O% t9 b3 e/ @
9 D i9 i1 e. z5 _# P) H接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
* D' S+ w- j: r$ Q: C因此铜板较容易出现正面。/ @1 K$ R2 j! X" d8 h
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
0 ~! w4 t% b0 N因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。2 b# e: p* |( C3 P% K% f7 w
心想赢定了。+ t I1 S2 m4 o, J, x' ~
% R( T8 x* v7 Q L7 o$ Z没想到开始不到半刻钟，) S8 b* U& B6 i+ ?- S
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」( S$ ^/ g" }4 l2 f4 }
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赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，( M4 a; O) c W+ X3 F) y
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。/ m- Q; z# P5 C5 A6 V p
; N+ V0 q5 V/ @4 T- b5 ?赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?
! s9 \+ F1 D/ K, ]他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
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上帝回答道：
- t2 c7 q$ x) }2 m {& e; v" j「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」
* Y. ~) h2 a2 |: [「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
7 I/ m* |* J, y- n8 V「而不是先发生在我身上。」% ]4 {2 u2 {% Z
% }* L% x; ^! ]3 o- e& @( }* u
赌徒恍然大悟，
0 Z4 I! ~; P2 a, d8 \ ]# t原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，" v# L: _0 E4 _$ B6 [' h% r2 {
竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
( \6 R( y8 b6 Y" `「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」% f6 C/ p/ [( p( a( p
上帝说完便不见踪影。 ? e% P8 Y) T6 i; N2 w2 w9 B
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，- N$ [: }! X- ^# p! U6 G% s% _
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
- ?# }1 j) A8 _ ]6 M1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，: r! h; |0 K8 K* j
对赌徒十分有利。
" {- u* N1 a5 m: f+ ~ " V; `( w0 Q; L/ @1 D! w9 b
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，8 J2 b/ P( q7 T+ `8 z9 g7 ^' O$ L
在还没掷到1000次之前，/ z4 H+ ~8 }$ {7 H4 {0 K
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。
8 H" U2 {! @! w0 Z( x& U, a: u: \0 N% N1 b2 ?
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。
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事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
8 |3 y, e, _5 ]- o
& o6 I6 a R& @ 市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，
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5 Z7 p$ L4 d% g0 s4 S; u- }, N2 @. Q: f 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！ ' n. \+ F( Z& U6 H) V* L
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