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连锁因素、基本面因素和技术面因素的组合表明，以太多头将面临更多痛苦。 % g+ d- J; W6 _/ \
以太坊的原生令牌Ether(埃塞俄比亚)的价值在2022年下跌了一半以上，同时对比特币(BTC)目前仍停留在2000美元以下出于几个原因.
" X, v4 r8 _- F; [此外，由于另一系列因素，ETH price可能在6月份面临更大的损失，这些因素将在下面讨论。
1 P1 g1 I) t1 E" O2 O以太坊基金集体亏损
& w4 g) x. c4 V* G. Q+ j根据CoinShares的每周市场报告，投资者已在2022年从以太坊投资基金中撤出2.5亿美元出版5月31日。 - W2 W* L% H, n" c
与其他硬币形成鲜明对比的是大量外流。例如，投资者在2022年向基于比特币的投资基金投入了3.69亿美元。
, S) S3 ] X4 Z* v5 ?3 G与此同时，与以太坊竞争的区块链第一层协议Solana和Cardano分别吸引了1.04亿美元和900万美元。 - A" t3 G$ C8 B. _7 ^
* C! S+ y0 K' x6 |7 U ~% ?8 t1 b
编辑切换为居中
5 J, s5 g8 _3 u. T/ P' F8 B流入/流出加密资金(按资产)
( y2 {- R* |* v7 u: L) V( h/ b这从以太坊基金中提款是一个迹象，表明最近在特拉USD (UST)和特拉(月神)Terra内的令牌算法稳定币生态系统——降低了对整体分散金融(DeFi)部门的兴趣。
- G$ l7 ]: k# M* k以太网的乐观前景仍然依赖于对DeFi市场繁荣的预期，因为以太坊的区块链托管了该领域的大部分金融应用。截至6月5日，基于以太坊的应用程序锁定的总价值(TVL)为6871万美元，几乎占TVL总DeFi的65%。
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! p! y. R9 T r8 N' P [编辑切换为居中 % o7 j( }7 p2 K, |( K
6月5日的TVL以太坊 ! Z7 O/ O- z* K& A; d7 t' \( y; z. U! h3 s
但是，TVL仍然反映了以太坊DeFi池的大规模撤退，在5月9日Luna Classic和TerraUSD Classic倒闭之前，该池徘徊在1000亿美元左右。 8 w, X; M8 e6 n- }
宏观风险由美联储的鹰派政策根据Tagus Capital的合伙人Ilan Solot的说法，加上对DeFi行业的谨慎前景，乙醚似乎将在6月份继续下跌。 - |# k; S7 q( t4 ?) u$ b
男性讲述金融时报:
4 x5 C" ~8 c. M9 c: }& O' Y8 ]“如果美联储收紧，世界陷入衰退，人们需要支付每加仑4.5美元的汽油，他们将没有多少钱投资DeFi或花在区块链奥运会上。”
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呆滞的技术面 ! k6 C% B$ |8 r$ R* M* W$ k
自5月以来的交易行为也描绘了以太坊的熊市前景。 1 \/ f2 Y% D+ l; j" u' {
具体来说，乙醚一直在水平趋势线支撑和下降趋势线阻力所限定的范围内波动。该形态看起来或多或少像一个“下降三角形”，在下降趋势中形成的熊市延续形态。 1 [, y1 z5 [" s1 m- s$ m
根据技术分析的规则，下跌三角形在价格决定性地跌破其支撑趋势线后分解，然后下跌三角形的最大高度。如下图所示，乙醚有可能在6月份经历类似的下跌。
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编辑切换为居中
# s7 V% z' m. l; ?ETH/USD每日价格图采用“下降三角形”设置 * i; V. |/ @" G% R) m0 d2 ]
如果ETH的价格跌破三角形的趋势线下限，它可能会在6月份跌至1，350美元，比今天的价格下跌约25%。
5 U, b8 ], v# M% s+ H交易所的ETH储备正在增加
+ H8 x1 t$ j& P. ^% GCryptoQuant的数据显示，自5月份以来，全球加密交易所的以太网余额总数增加了550，459以太网演出. ! I0 p$ b" @2 D
自Terra崩溃开始以来，这相当于近9.5亿美元的资金流入了交易所的热门钱包。 & D& ]' N6 U* _0 c& f
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编辑切换为居中 w- D Z) y& H+ M1 t- @' F
以太坊外汇储备
" k% T! \; o, \' A3 }1 f通常，当交易者想用代币交换其他资产时，他们会向交易所发送代币。因此，如果交易所的ETH储备下降趋势开始逆转，抛售压力可能会增加。 0 J% S9 y! E* \* T
来源：金色财经 |
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