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[lastpost] => 2796987 比特币再次是爆发起来啊 1768363031 赚钱小样
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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。
* z$ b/ h0 s" z8 d
$ g7 P" B s" o' P6 `瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心
# @5 ]& C( I w( {- S0 Z. f3 q& X3 q' [0 B" d
衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
* r: q& N$ h7 {. h4 a美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金8 J* [. E9 ~' h. c% O4 N5 K6 _
" m' y" \' W T# `融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
9 E2 ]( g+ s) S' Z$ ^$ q6 ^
( q9 e! Q; v3 @* n3 {! w: @' ?过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益8 D1 u* X n, R! g
5 i* n9 P5 C( `: H7 _: n
率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。9 U8 b, i6 E- D6 X1 D+ e& d" ^
. f" q' m% t& n" `& G" u然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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S2 b3 L7 \$ U6 C1 D长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更
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0 j( S) G. {2 ~& D+ F! Y! z是表示：
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h) B* `3 n1 S这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。
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历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币
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特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史# O6 U" B3 R) Y
& _9 _3 s5 u# d, s" N标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了： Y8 h1 Z3 t4 b7 N( V' a1 N
, y+ ~2 _, Z+ H% f% g3 q
周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。/ \- `+ }$ } o: z8 A1 O. K% I
* O Q* b, O" S8 E周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。: z- V, ], s: L1 \
9 Q# N0 \* g2 I0 n: L
周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债& O4 [$ @& S' |- s5 E4 N2 i
- \1 c# L+ Q# l2 J. f! S/ \9 Y; z! g
收益率冲高回落。
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。8 M7 h+ o+ f2 w1 g0 u% H& g9 E
5 ?5 K/ d d1 G# _/ e0 `周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。3 z" r1 f, l; a/ A. T3 G% A
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& {1 A A$ x+ P0 m! O1 fLoomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，( ^2 G2 o& y2 s0 I+ q; v
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是的，这正是我们所看到的。" j; m) S# Z/ Z' _1 q2 b% A% l
/ k4 V# `* L" d. M根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去! h. M1 Z/ Y' |6 q! w' |) d) ]
& _, L$ W3 S4 g" m年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。8 a O" s7 A2 g$ Y7 I1 Z8 v' O5 v
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"4 f( a9 ^. i: N; Z. l: a+ ]
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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