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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。% D N2 }* s$ O$ W( V: p8 m/ m K
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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率2 B0 l" ~+ `7 @4 n: Q
+ W, H! I0 C. k9 h) I以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% " {2 r* n( z$ w( b) G' n
9 D7 W) C% W' Q4 Z4 _很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)& e: |3 t7 v- W& Z5 n0 Q! Z
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?0 Q4 I* O: H" s7 o/ W0 A% a
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5 `5 u; Q" l* j* t3 h2 J& p盈利可能性
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% \- r% M' G6 f- D对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值& B% h8 N0 L$ w6 I4 s3 f% {
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许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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5 j* M$ w/ _4 W" d5 C! m5 a你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
% T, l5 C; W ]( {8 s9 U. G+ b% [3 d) @! }3 w1 j2 W4 ?
a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么- w( V) H5 r6 D* M* p: v5 N
9 g( ]' e/ a$ M" o40%的机会你会收到150元的利润
% y9 M. P N& l: H4 R5 U60%的机会你会一无所有4 T- t- u; x: \ t, E- g9 p5 }" e
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 0 g2 z5 ]) [0 b2 K+ y. x
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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, r6 u! J0 {3 O( Q2 \: `3 b基于增值的投注6 `0 q' L P1 C! I2 t
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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" {9 ~4 y) B& f1 T公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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6 [. e% r* n/ e3 u% q2 r1 _1 {A=博彩资金
( R% h1 X4 o5 }: I9 c! a" `P=获胜机会4 E4 D$ T4 T6 Z2 N1 Q d
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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0 H5 D2 e1 l+ K首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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- `1 ]$ O4 ]. A2 F. q; [' {- k好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。$ Y' v* Z0 U, S4 y' \4 S1 k
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)- }$ b9 f, R1 \! O$ v7 ]
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A=0+ w- D- `7 w3 E& q3 P
5 o3 C3 S; G6 k, E结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)2 Z9 _7 B7 l4 b& r( D# e: S, z9 L. V
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A=0.1
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9 L0 C% s$ v7 p# Z- g+ a. ]结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2)8 R6 ~: ]1 b( s- e0 A
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)0 c3 E4 w+ S% l2 z9 z
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A= -0.2 / S; }( q. x2 t3 {! S8 [+ z9 P8 y
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好" z5 j- u; Q0 a' I
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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