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于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。: H1 g: N; v6 o2 M+ }
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# j" s5 b" o: ]6 z
西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率# A- G9 `' g r7 H
9 C; z2 l6 y m) `- K$ _* ^7 m
以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得: ^% q: r) Y: r. U
3 H$ V9 r' }3 w4 W) r' g
皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54%
6 Z, T2 V& |7 i
' {# f( z7 C0 F( E- v- H- e6 N$ e很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
9 z* D1 | E6 m, S' P5 N+ b; T: o. _$ ~( E# | x2 ^
答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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* g4 ]' X" K$ L6 p9 ~6 c3 w9 b3 l) l3 U
以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?% x, D( U) {, D
* v; U& H2 q4 e* \4 m4 j2 V3 [* F
( b/ n0 z6 o2 z4 c( ~% R; j盈利可能性
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对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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3 P: R0 |, j1 v" o# _增值
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$ c5 f' f( q/ T1 f许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。
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C( O: f+ s$ L- \+ U你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?
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a) 1.4 b) 3.5 c) 1.67 d) 2.5
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么% V. n" G. U2 J% X3 Q- X5 a: X
# j: r9 ~3 O3 M1 h6 G5 ~1 A
40%的机会你会收到150元的利润& T9 N- s/ H8 o" ~9 X7 Y3 o/ l
60%的机会你会一无所有; p4 F9 {5 h7 H8 ^- d& [
预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0 % d5 l' K9 r4 T
由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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6 k, n3 `" ]7 A0 r, f9 \9 F# ~增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。
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) a5 r2 T* G# n- p/ A* S; I8 `基于增值的投注
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. i4 h# k% y& M( W凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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9 \2 C. o5 y8 W+ }, xA=博彩资金$ ?, t( c& n+ w& V6 T2 v
P=获胜机会
# q3 q" n" r0 I- d6 CO=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。5 H( s6 N0 L, f# |+ P8 z9 d ~% m
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。; ?* |' k: v. Z7 q9 X/ O
% o1 o1 H& x; z+ a1 N1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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/ H* N) u% r. {- NA = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
) f$ J3 b$ G) |/ c* A+ r$ U
; W4 I% W9 x* Q/ U7 _* d6 }A=0
6 ~% B0 C/ l# J* M$ B' e
: f* M: M/ P# w6 Z9 p8 }结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)6 |) V" S: h0 o h( @2 K0 s2 S) [ D( W
+ e2 y9 x! v# dA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
2 I) V- I2 T5 J9 ]
; \) p& j' q) d, q" b+ H9 [, o8 IA=0.1
0 A" F0 L, j* T% u6 z* f$ ^. R% c( b5 A1 N7 y# }
结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
; S& p. ?" E5 ?, S" b9 R" q; d6 r! E. K9 F' k/ t1 N$ B
3 负增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率2) C* @/ h8 N% [7 O9 Q* Y! C
7 G/ u+ O- i/ P: o1 j+ AA= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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A= -0.2 D Q5 Z0 @% A2 s/ m& u9 V
5 {7 T3 y K9 a* R结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好( {. y# t; s. r0 w8 m' `# N
7 E& v; m) \: @第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了 |
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