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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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只跟踪一个联赛: z: T: b% x8 f& r8 G; u9 \' V5 l6 |
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔0 j# d$ Y$ V6 E% C

5 n" m  b1 `- [2 y三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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2 v+ _3 O) \8 S4 A. t6 [偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。# a8 f2 r9 _0 m  G2 Z6 U0 z6 n

9 w3 n; R* D. e6 F6 x$ N  Q1 Q; L9 t方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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' E) J9 f2 A8 x- P( g就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱! Q% p0 a. L) z+ L. m
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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* J# O% e# K3 x9 o4 R亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，. B0 A+ U* O( y5 V- y& P5 j

0 D& c8 ?4 X& v8 d8 U而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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9 E8 I3 y% o7 z3 t0 m( A7 [理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。0 z- G/ B" s! H) b6 ^+ A) _8 y1 B
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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1 m) v5 Q- h  N4 W. }但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，. p) s9 B: _# H3 |

8 J3 C2 o- @9 w这比买国债存银行合算。
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1 c2 c  r+ G( p$ d+ P" J在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，8 H! k7 I" e& d8 H4 r9 D% L" V5 {# z
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。9 B" D# m1 x& S7 \- S+ @
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# y& e4 M# J& o; f常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。6 [: {  X: E  b* Y$ ]  z# p1 ?5 O
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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+ s1 X/ Y1 A/ @就是回避了大的亏损，
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, S5 t; R3 y7 i" k大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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