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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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5 R0 [( X, _" O/ |9 h# T只跟踪一个联赛! {/ ~5 r: L# @! j& M

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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔) P' {( `  \3 y$ T

) m/ @6 p: I% S三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
, B4 U/ [( E4 H/ I9 t: h* c+ S. y8 P) b7 z4 _# z
然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
5 D+ {  K4 @. R7 J: _7 a( A2 M' O# e" g" z! m6 K- R/ o
就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目: `, y9 y6 \! m4 N
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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7 J; h+ B" G' A: K0 B8 G而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，3 O9 y& c; I" V0 n" c7 C# R
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。- \. w$ t, A; O6 Y3 P& _3 k" l
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3 r" Z/ ~7 U( c+ ^) P2 y  M理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。, h3 O& `4 S6 k/ V3 z
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，4 N( M, k; b" d* V' H& [) H9 q

$ s/ R0 T7 [1 p( C, v- c$ L5 t但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
9 f6 H2 E# M; ]9 d; A( p/ l
0 _) c* h. E1 u2 C这比买国债存银行合算。; |0 R. B% ^/ O. H: W

6 U& l# R& M/ n6 L8 k在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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4 p+ h, W4 P- T# m几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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8 Y. q  U/ B0 H8 j& s' h就是回避了大的亏损，5 V" ?+ }) _0 e3 \8 h/ c
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大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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