优惠论坛
Well123
注册
找回密码 |
天策评选的优秀公司,所有会员与公司发生的问题我们将负责尽力协助处理。
收起/展开
新晋公司
 

新晋公司具有驻站代表,并不在论坛纠纷服务范围内,请会员自行判断选择

  • 356
S级信誉公司
ManBetX万博
YZ
乐投
188金宝博
E世博
瑞丰国际
A级信誉公司
吉祥坊
星宝合营
乐动体育
B级信誉公司
bet365
C级合作公司
CMP
金星
LOKI
平博
  • 推荐主题
  • 热门活动
  • 币圈快讯
  • 商城动态
重要通知
 
论坛搜索
              搜索
Array ( [fid] => 1121 [description] => 天策社区的核心交流圈,会员可在此交流网络菠菜相关内容! [password] => [icon] => 3a/common_1121_icon.png [redirect] => [attachextensions] => [creditspolicy] => Array ( [post] => Array ( [usecustom] => 1 [cycletype] => 1 [cycletime] => 0 [rewardnum] => 10 [extcredits1] => 1 [extcredits2] => 1 [extcredits3] => 0 [extcredits4] => 0 [extcredits5] => 1 [extcredits6] => 0 [extcredits7] => 0 [extcredits8] => 0 [rid] => 1 [fid] => 1121 [rulename] => 发表主题 [action] => post [fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6762,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,6905,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6882,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6951,6984,6895,6974,6975,6982,6937,6845,6879,1121 ) [reply] => Array ( [usecustom] => 1 [cycletype] => 1 [cycletime] => 0 [rewardnum] => 0 [extcredits1] => 0 [extcredits2] => 1 [extcredits3] => 10 [extcredits4] => 0 [extcredits6] => 0 [extcredits5] => 0 [extcredits7] => 0 [extcredits8] => 0 [rid] => 2 [fid] => 1121 [rulename] => 发表回复 [action] => reply [fids] => 32,52,67,447,1120,1151,1156,6750,6763,6766,6769,6772,6773,6787,6796,6808,6809,6810,6813,6814,6820,6829,6830,6846,6856,6864,6865,6827,6930,6931,6776,6858,6880,6764,6932,6871,6758,1116,6788,6812,6798,6736,6759,6842,6966,6767,6828,6924,6935,6936,6938,6940,6941,6826,6909,6803,6919,6911,6908,6881,6920,6912,6913,6921,6925,6922,6789,6818,6819,6872,6928,6969,6889,6888,6917,6939,6947,6961,6943,6970,6869,6900,6902,6783,6817,1111,6870,6821,6876,6952,6954,6960,6942,6910,6949,6962,6963,6964,6927,6926,6973,6728,6929,6874,6894,6896,6885,6857,6868,1113,6778,56,6844,6878,6802,6933,6811,6923,6877,6875,6918,6892,6757,6832,6833,6795,6793,6848,6837,6849,6850,6851,6852,6853,6854,6863,6836,6790,6838,6794,6791,6873,555,6934,6958,6944,6945,6907,6779,6886,6950,6904,6956,6862,6957,6855,6955,6959,6914,6965,6971,6972,6953,6976,6824,6815,6891,6866,6979,6977,6765,6903,6948,6980,6981,6983,6799,6951,6984,6895,6974,6975,6982,6937,6845,6879,1121 ) ) [formulaperm] => a:5:{i:0;s:0:"";i:1;s:0:"";s:7:"message";s:0:"";s:5:"medal";N;s:5:"users";s:0:"";} [moderators] => 实习版主1 天策小编-幸福堂 天策小编-哈尔 [rules] => 策略综合讨论区版规与申明:

1.为了您自身信息安全考虑,除论坛官方TG群外,论坛不提倡创建或加入Q群,对出现推广网址/QQ号/QQ群/微博/微信号/手机号/联系方式的主题及回帖,版主会作屏蔽、删帖、禁言等处理。
2.为避免不法份子发帖诈骗,无论何种类型的讨要红包帖、借钱帖一律删除。
3.转载主题请注明出处,未注明与复制论坛已有主题者,将被扣除20经验/100活跃币/1000策小分及移贴、删帖处罚。
4.同一会员或客服就同一公司的主题帖,每天最多可发布5帖,超出部分版主会作移帖处理。
5.综合讨论大厅每人每日最多可发布20个主题帖。
6.仅限回复7天内的主题帖,如回复7天前主题帖视为“挖坟”。
7.版规可能存在不完善,任何利用版规钻漏洞的都将予以严惩。论坛拥有最终解释权并会不断完善规章制度。
8.大厅不处理纠纷与咨询性质主题,如有需要请移步【咨询驻站客服区】,同时版主保留锁帖/移贴操作的权限。 [threadtypes] => Array ( [required] => 1 [listable] => 1 [prefix] => 1 [types] => Array ( [111] => 论坛公告 [1446] => 天策快讯 [114] => 天策特约 [593] => 公司优惠 [109] => 综合讨论 [1619] => 天策嗨聊 [1445] => 晒奖分享 [878] => 吐槽大会 [1481] => 实战直播 [1605] => 科学上网 [1606] => 真人 [1608] => 彩票 [1609] => 棋牌 [1610] => 电竞 [1611] => 电子 [1750] => 天策解说 [1660] => 入驻合作 ) [icons] => Array ( [111] => [1446] => [114] => [593] => [109] => [1619] => [1445] => [878] => [1481] => [1605] => [1606] => [1608] => [1609] => [1610] => [1611] => [1750] => [1660] => ) [moderators] => Array ( [111] => 1 [1446] => 1 [114] => 1 [593] => [109] => [1619] => 1 [1445] => [878] => [1481] => [1605] => [1606] => [1608] => [1609] => [1610] => [1611] => [1750] => [1660] => ) ) [threadsorts] => Array ( ) [viewperm] => 9 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 31 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 7 8 [postperm] => 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 [replyperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 [getattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 [postattachperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 [postimageperm] => 26 22 11 12 13 14 15 27 43 44 60 61 62 63 64 19 67 68 69 73 75 76 83 84 87 90 91 92 33 38 57 58 65 66 74 77 79 80 85 86 1 2 3 [spviewperm] => [seotitle] => 综合讨论大厅 [keywords] => 玩家交流,优惠红利,各类活动,策略理论, [seodescription] => 综合讨论大厅志在为真实玩家带来一个干净公正的交流平台,在这里可以学习到各种打法以及下注心得 [supe_pushsetting] => [modrecommend] => Array ( [open] => 0 [sort] => 1 [orderby] => 3 [num] => 5 [imagenum] => 5 [imagewidth] => 200 [imageheight] => 150 [maxlength] => 0 [cachelife] => 900 [dateline] => 0 ) [threadplugin] => Array ( ) [replybg] => [extra] => a:2:{s:9:"namecolor";s:7:"#000000";s:9:"iconwidth";s:2:"60";} [jointype] => 0 [gviewperm] => 0 [membernum] => 0 [dateline] => 0 [lastupdate] => 0 [activity] => 0 [founderuid] => 0 [foundername] => [banner] => [groupnum] => 0 [commentitem] => [relatedgroup] => [picstyle] => 0 [widthauto] => 0 [noantitheft] => 0 [noforumhidewater] => 0 [noforumrecommend] => 0 [livetid] => 0 [price] => 0 [fup] => 6729 [type] => forum [name] => 天策综合讨论大厅 [status] => 1 [displayorder] => 1 [styleid] => 0 [threads] => 1014222 [posts] => 16777215 [todayposts] => 1350 [yesterdayposts] => 1757 [rank] => 1 [oldrank] => 1 [lastpost] => 2756290 【YZ】你发帖,我奖励! 1755004152 大吉大利 [domain] => [allowsmilies] => 1 [allowhtml] => 1 [allowbbcode] => 1 [allowimgcode] => 1 [allowmediacode] => 1 [allowanonymous] => 0 [allowpostspecial] => 21 [allowspecialonly] => 0 [allowappend] => 0 [alloweditrules] => 1 [allowfeed] => 0 [allowside] => 0 [recyclebin] => 1 [modnewposts] => 2 [jammer] => 1 [disablewatermark] => 0 [inheritedmod] => 0 [autoclose] => 0 [forumcolumns] => 4 [catforumcolumns] => 0 [threadcaches] => 0 [alloweditpost] => 1 [simple] => 16 [modworks] => 1 [allowglobalstick] => 1 [level] => 0 [commoncredits] => 0 [archive] => 0 [recommend] => 0 [favtimes] => 38 [sharetimes] => 0 [disablethumb] => 0 [disablecollect] => 0 [ismoderator] => 0 [threadtableid] => 0 [allowreply] => [allowpost] => [allowpostattach] => )
打印 上一主题 下一主题
认同“学坏”朋友的计算,骰子投注单一数字,获胜率为50%正,DC没有抽水
  [复制链接]
avatar
跳转到指定楼层
1#
本帖最后由 76gor 于 2012-11-21 11:58 编辑
- r! [; ~# c% V/ M# @" B) g9 K- J
4 Y1 r# ?; K. s" M/ q& ]刚刚认真计算了一次;- M' J* [4 g' F, I: Q

% I% W' D: V' B  g+ e4 @假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:3 x- B( }8 o1 O  C' X
* M2 c+ M4 `( j3 t
开3个”6“的几率:(1/6)* (1/6)* (1/6)  =  1/216;
% m: R. A! B  n7 n5 k) z6 l. p5 u. d4 I! r9 w! E$ E
开2个”6“, 因为有三个组合的可能性,所以几率是:(1/6)* (5/6) * (1/6) *3 = 5/72
7 G/ B6 O  q. i8 O$ A1 q1 p) r# z- n' z$ S9 G+ z7 {( n% ^0 H
开1个”6“,几率是: 1-(5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) - 5/72 -  1/216 = 25/72
, h$ u  \2 I+ |- Q" E  F0 e5 N. M# ~$ D
收益率:(1/216 *3) + ( 5/72*2)+ 25/72 = 0.5" g) O8 g  J( [3 p

" w) `$ Q) e" r/ S4 c2 n) T
) n4 V( Q* ~6 J所以,平注一直投注,基数无限大时,获胜的几率确实为50%整;
' ~3 v$ O! L/ ~+ H: N% W" b" g( a) U/ w4 M+ _. b+ F4 i
加上反水,假如有耐心,存个几万,聘请一个人,五块五块的压,那么长期下来,你的收入就等于你的反水率;9 Z$ S9 Z9 a  @1 J' m
1 k' V8 W6 q; j9 i2 k  l0 |" h
以上,76gor) [+ L2 E) p8 r1 q( s7 N
avatar
2#
我试试再深入探讨一下,已经确定赢输几率为50%,假如DC不禁止单边投注,没有信誉问题,以波音平台骰子反水0.8%计算;3 g: ~8 Q" e1 o) y8 J! r- w! m+ R; L' q

4 K* y/ B  `# @- p! _+ ?假设存款100A, 每次投注50元单数字(20000注本金),以波音骰子30秒一局计算,
* i( y$ F5 ]7 B7 ]( K- H
9 P3 f: Q  j# S5 K; V6 N2 u一天流水为: 50*2*60*24 =¥144,000
5 o" N& g: w3 V& p1 \0 m* C每天反水为:144000*0.008=¥1,152
8 w0 ~* W5 k- H# }
( e* J6 u% M% z4 [假设聘请3个人,轮班工作,每个人一天工资¥150,加上电费,每天支出为:¥500
* M& A8 z6 t  T
- Q" K) j; l5 u$ J2 X每天净收入为:¥652
8 h4 \4 v4 y: M- `& L* p6 M* a( r( ]0 s
年收入为:¥237,980
/ y2 ^1 W7 {+ p+ d( ^
& N. q. ^! m1 Y* U唯一难度在于,有100A的人不一定愿意这样赚钱;* C8 v: S4 ?4 \# I
唯二风险在于聘请的人不按章工作,或者DC跑路;
/ O9 w& G: H6 J7 m/ v* e
4 R( V% F0 l2 g6 [1 i
avatar
3#
回复 2# 76gor
& j4 {; {, f$ Z# q$ L4 s6 y% y; t# |

0 Z; f" j; R' Y1 j. B   这都能想到,真服了你了。。。;P
avatar
4#
感谢76分享阿
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
最近流行探讨这个话题?
avatar
6#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,
avatar
7#
最近流行探讨这个话题?8 G7 K! N+ T, H" ]: V2 e, D. N4 R
Terrance 发表于 2012-11-21 12:22
' q- F* i. x- z$ _' _) x4 U5 t- w/ N
9 `. D5 o8 _3 \4 [0 W
  M  Z+ ]6 M* _7 H
    竟然有不抽水的赌戏,还是挺有意思的
avatar
8#
哈哈,楼主被误导了,+ x8 i# A5 h# y0 [$ ^
beata 发表于 2012-11-21 12:24
( m: s8 I2 p  N" k0 i- t
3 \8 c4 b7 g0 S. k4 u

1 p* \: ~, e/ M  L6 w, a    请指教,我们只聊几率哦
avatar
9#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
avatar
10#
楼主分析得好厉害啊
avatar
11#
刚刚认真计算了一次;
# ?. v( M+ D- Z, t8 O7 C) ~$ Q5 @& O
假设我每次都是平注投注数字 "6" , 获胜率的计算如下:- E. v; w; P' A

& u- B9 N( S1 A8 E; x2 P: h' t2 P开3个”6“的几率:(1/ ...
) B7 T1 o3 x5 g0 ^8 S1 C76gor 发表于 2012-11-21 11:54
1 [8 p* E  [! r5 s
+ F; _0 y% ]6 I, f5 O7 J8 I# i

3 z. g) q% C1 [: I; K" J! M3 Z$ X! n楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏/ d+ ^, C$ O5 {) d' m" |
大概是1%多点
7 M* d2 S! M, Y
7 k0 i4 `# N$ E2 a至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当高的
avatar
12#
楼主再仔细想想吧百家乐是公认的抽水最低的游戏/ h' o( }5 C2 f: n
大概是1%多点; j  M  O) A7 f5 \/ h  \# W
  C/ R2 o  {1 g* y4 q
至于你现在说的这个抽水其实是相当 ...
+ Z# I& J) t+ s- {" B0 J) Jtaishan 发表于 2012-11-21 12:27
2 _  w6 g7 Y' h" p
8 |) g3 g" b3 J* O
; M# j9 q+ w+ ~  ~0 \
    请指教
avatar
13#
楼主分析不错哦 学习下
avatar
14#
看起来不错,不过没钱实施
avatar
15#
76哥  那这么说 骰宝还真适合打首存优惠啊?
0 H4 k  h1 w' ?  B粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:26

/ j6 o" Z! M& S1 h, x' `, r
5 T( z8 U9 f+ `' g: Z, p0 J* q/ t: D; c+ N
    自问没有计算错误,确实适合磨流水,唯一风险是振幅和DC不允许
avatar
16#
回复 15# 76gor
6 h! e$ Z) |0 v* u9 v" s& s+ w+ c- r
* Y% V( a3 K0 O
   有个风险就是豹子吧!
avatar
17#
回复  76gor 9 V( ~2 a0 W$ i$ E6 d

% @  Z" b  g! O) P! T) i; U. o: m9 L6 i5 V, e- K/ D! M; F
   有个风险就是豹子吧!3 A  U$ c; [% y; o3 H- R
粤D 发表于 2012-11-21 12:30

% ~1 _" T3 e7 ]2 R+ `& M- p: d6 N# }( o! f: Y. e

4 n' Y& n) _+ U, l! Z/ ?, r4 b    不是说豹子只杀大小和单双吗?那样的话豹子就不是风险了
12345下一页
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 论坛注册

本版积分规则

:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
{:8_286:} {:8_287:} {:8_288:} {:8_289:}
{:8_290:} {:8_291:} {:8_292:} {:8_293:}
{:8_294:} {:8_295:} {:8_296:} {:8_297:}
{:8_298:} {:8_299:} {:8_300:} {:8_301:}
{:8_302:} {:8_303:} {:8_304:} {:8_305:}
{:8_306:} {:8_307:} {:8_308:} {:8_309:}
{:8_310:} {:8_311:} {:8_312:}
{:8_313:} {:8_314:} {:8_315:} {:8_316:}
{:8_317:} {:8_318:} {:8_319:} {:8_320:}
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
未有绑定记录
 


Powered by 天策论坛   © 2007-2025 天策论坛 | 小黑屋 | 手机|
1717 : 0