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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
" r/ k8 ~+ E; y* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c" N) x* {0 b1 i( s4 T
凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k
5 e/ r# z7 S* f
" Q4 d% x) [5 H3 c# jG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率): @6 k' v u' R8 i0 D
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [
$ Z$ I# q! \& D; Q H& [4 k/ F; h" G0 }+ a! V- u
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h1 t- u9 {+ D* u: O! a) H
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ ! x! l, H+ \; @. U
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
! e) m) W; G; H8 ]做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `( H0 ^4 j/ Z) p/ W
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d( |$ a: C7 P) D; b9 L' i2 \
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
7 n M( D' e9 ~6 R, {# P* ?6 v C3 n
+ M5 }/ h5 d: ?5 ^(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00
" b. }: x5 N9 T! e; x' a8 ~) [+ K2 Q4 }' U3 t
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
$ o1 i# G9 Q6 i; f4 F- I" g. ?" x0 n9 o* k1 u3 E/ X* h; v# h, R
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 & H0 ?8 H( H5 P# X' L7 M/ B9 \
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _: V3 |$ R7 c5 E4 `% H
我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 2 U D }. B; v3 f R: o
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c
) z" z( a" r, ~, i1 b( N3 hS1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
. |& f; w" y% z+ D$ P7 X
% C9 E7 Y3 D6 U `0 Y pS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
! Z3 X6 f- t; } N0 p5 S% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
0 u" `% \+ H) F3 f6 i9 G7 mS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
0 D5 b: h- t/ O5 Z4 c9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j# P. r+ k9 q) W+ w' d/ G
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
7 `1 N# B$ w9 u8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
! @7 ]0 }- d0 e* I5 d( Q1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
! x7 A1 ~' Y* C, J8 r) f$ h/ e2 D7 E9 t& f! ?! B* h
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l( |6 D/ T# x# T- D0 _6 P
: \4 V* D4 n9 b/ q' r1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
- h' V! G ~5 \* B$ W- p
3 R8 y ]# m7 s1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
4 S+ b5 \) ^4 v0 f6 {9 O: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r; D; j1 G) p. k1 c. w
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
" K# ~: l8 s$ @: d4 _
( Y( b/ m" S$ S0 W类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
$ U6 o, q! V4 d1 h0 ?! Q+ o: h+ [ p
/ l! O7 p3 ~' M0 d! }6 kS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
$ ?( e `2 n4 W( g) K& ~
3 q- c3 }3 W2 T) s8 ^% |( ZS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s
; r9 w7 w# M* @6 t5 n; m' V% T, u, P% O
& P1 A2 k( s, t; ~0 [S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31
8 z0 T( g3 Y5 |/ N% n7 v" }) O) u6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
0 d* C( R1 p1 r5 C) s6 sS4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 0 J( `; M) J9 }* o8 O1 p9 h
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~: g4 n9 m4 r* p* {. D& I u
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
2 s( E8 F w+ F* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \9 Z/ t) A% T9 }3 c1 a Q
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41 7 s R" L4 @# w' J/ d+ i' a" v
) q( ], k9 L T& t! |& F+ r! X2 q5 d: R! h: K5 A
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
1 K7 M1 w: l0 h( E
: d: R- k$ M, Z+ L8 m5 U oF'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
1 e7 Y# v: n" ~( O7 [( }9 `
. [0 z: L: F0 l3 J2 V* c# J于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
K+ p, P. E; G, h( Y5 Y9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {4 I3 q0 i/ y( e; [: N# y
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M
4 k& ]3 W2 O0 ?; D1 I- b) R7 v+ D$ n) P# X# M* T3 v, F9 |3 f2 n' q8 d8 Z- g
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
2 J c' \6 r5 R* d) x* P6 j! g% ?1 }
/ o6 C6 e7 W( ?G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]3 A0 }% E2 P) e& w
; R5 Q ^8 o/ y( Q' W2 s/ v
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \0 b1 O0 t6 @/ x. ?# {
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
* F6 U" J3 H( L; t/ f: ]0 l3 p0 u2 L$ d通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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