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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑
# @/ o7 j9 `( K$ K) K* f/ a/ y4 p# R- a1 ^9 v! c
0 X+ }! o7 D- J/ L& |凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k# f( V3 K+ |+ y! }8 a- l- M1 t
& M: w7 C \; y5 ~G3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)* P# Y9 u" E& A r) r
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [, q/ V0 _: w& _0 ]% t" O, N0 J4 V: N
. P( I: ]1 ~' W' j+ Z+ V# G6 p
& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h) ^8 x) ~; y6 g" P/ O& {7 R4 u
既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ ; D) `9 t# q# R/ c$ I6 _, I+ p
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s
0 k1 i( H& J# ?2 q4 @做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" `
" G s1 {9 X! @+ x( o4 ~; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d
# k" m9 o1 o' t- Q! m9 u(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n, |* p1 N+ k; j
# f+ e# }' f) Z, E( @5 ~( d- Q(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 8 h( z7 _- \# ?% M
) p# O, R* U$ K7 O(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t
3 ?2 s; {- J3 H ^ P* r2 F x4 Z5 f8 g ?* u2 v
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95
$ P+ T6 T g; B/ |% Y0 O2 E- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
# W$ s( E& f- C- s我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 ; S& X# t/ u- f& H' }
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c! @9 H" R1 A) i
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
4 F& q8 l+ U; G7 ^) M2 t; g- ~
6 U( G7 k* ], qS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00 / W2 m4 \9 U0 z/ s+ W8 ~
% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s9 r. Y7 R; r" f$ } r, S" D
S3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87
. k5 c- u# q' c0 a3 U9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j
2 \% W( }" X+ j& X4 |/ p! WS4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \
! @" w! p2 s: c6 P0 p4 k, h% T* ]+ b8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v
; D: l: u# ]2 G, ^1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
' S3 n5 g2 H5 d) m9 h5 ?! \, z& }; d! W7 r# }5 E# M9 \+ G
1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l5 ~/ l6 c) H k6 L+ x
1 m0 ~7 Q4 t0 q7 ~1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
! `0 q7 i+ U1 ?1 j1 j5 H' }9 j% _% Z& G9 o) i( p/ m
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
: j; Z6 B; G1 `# M: v: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r# k4 J3 d( D4 h' I+ ~
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
* a; ~ I% t- ~8 k0 d3 N5 i5 Y3 b" Q. S( F5 N+ e
类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j6 G" u& K) f. x5 F% L
/ R8 i7 L8 @2 c- w. LS1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30;
/ J$ A g6 ~0 X* @
! b! l5 c8 L8 I6 a2 ?5 `# |S2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s, \ I) }" @* D
; m' V% T, u, P% O
9 M! t# o3 [8 @ ~" ^% v8 |S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 % Y! A `: a* T% w; s& }# f/ }% ~7 P
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a* P7 _1 W$ ^, {/ P4 q; q0 d9 u2 A
S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31 7 I' D X# Z" S/ d9 }% Q
: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~; B/ U8 P* `1 u4 G
(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o% a' _, z. ~' A5 Z& C4 v
* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \- t. l+ S$ e. o8 L, S* l1 c
好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
; K( x- w! z- ?- u) |$ A* v) q( ], k9 L T& t/ w: g+ ~7 t4 I9 C( K4 x. o0 n
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75 , w1 k2 f+ l* _+ I3 M" e, Q
) [7 t9 {" E2 f! _) V. x$ |
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5
, r* G3 V# ^7 {8 c s/ o' Q% U* }' [! Y1 u+ ?. Y
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?
, q5 [& s3 n9 Y2 g9 }( w9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {
' ?: {- t/ j2 o2 VG31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M7 {* @0 R# |5 r: B& d0 Z0 j" f- ^1 h
+ D$ n) P# X# M, ?, ~" H7 E3 U$ q- R0 l( I
G11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56 + d- q- q1 X; t: A; b
- d5 j" M$ \5 i1 b
G01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]5 Y3 o* T0 I( S$ E
& p- X. q" I, C& a2 c: B2 o
当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \. b5 _) `6 T8 s
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
9 o5 I2 P- o' i* X& @4 q通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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