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本帖最后由 陆安梦 于 2017-12-20 14:29 编辑 ' I7 F* a: b; `# b8 i' O
( U6 ^4 ?4 i' I% S9 n9 }其实原文标题不是这样的! j D' z4 l- i9 v# v: p* B' L
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这是我看完的心得所下的 说真的很实用 因昨天我玩了40分钟的捕鱼机深深有感!!!
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有一天，一个专业的赌徒遇到了上帝...
0 ^" B: k" u( e' q9 s9 O! S他希望能和上帝来场赌局。
" `) S/ K% d; F6 D. ]' ]+ n1 \1 t0 h$ l9 a6 ~: ~ q9 ?7 H% I+ r P G' T
「我有无限多的金钱。」上帝说着。, ^8 Y2 K2 C" \& P
1 I/ M7 i$ p, q" G+ B9 g; a 「无论多久我都能和您赌下去，您可以带走所有您赢到的金钱。」9 T P7 l6 ^* v* p2 N# H
6 I0 [0 |9 j5 ~5 W$ K( `「我只有一个要求，我们赌掷铜板，由您选择正反面。」 「选对了便可以从我这拿走一枚金币，反之我要拿走您一枚金币。」 # l o) _1 g0 v" I5 o
「如同人生一样，您的人生，您自己选择。」+ C3 O; J5 J) D3 z7 ^& s! A/ R6 R
4 [6 }; V0 G) x5 q5 o6 V 上帝笑着说完，便把铜板交给赌徒。) L3 m/ t7 J# b! d
% r5 U/ s2 k4 G# ~ g P接过铜板，赌徒凭着过往的经验，便立即察觉 铜板反面的重量比正面稍重，
1 k( w% k/ j; g2 R- C" S因此铜板较容易出现正面。5 V; x7 a- r4 B) H7 z+ C2 G
长期而言，正面出现的次数会高于反面，较有长期优势。
' W/ J/ T" z9 n7 D/ o4 l因此，赌徒二话不说，掏出身上20枚金币，心中暗自窃喜。
, Z4 Y3 O- A8 K; H$ \' S: O. P$ e心想赢定了。* f1 X1 Z4 x! A) }: u% g1 W# N
& t" U: x* ?; k2 Y4 c4 q
没想到开始不到半刻钟，% S. M" s5 w8 _8 m
赌徒已经把20枚金币便已经输个精光。 「应该只是运气不好吧！」& f9 `* u \& S0 L3 M& ?
( R4 h4 A( G( ~赌徒不甘心，又带了100枚金币来比试，. W4 l5 R; l, P
但过了一整天后却仍输个精光。8 ~: O$ T' |5 J# `
/ v" W9 l! U3 \+ h# ?$ J+ M赌徒百思不得其解，他明明已经占尽优势，为何还会失败?$ p0 A& D- q4 v# `$ p+ b
他恳请上帝告诉他原因。
6 S ~8 k; E9 j& v
上帝回答道：0 U$ X" h# ?" h0 e( I4 Q% p
「我会赢，只是因为我有 无限的资本。」7 Y" }( X; `9 N/ n
「因此，如果时间够长，输光所有的钱会先发生在您身上。」
% a# N5 j/ r3 D4 L2 O) m( {「而不是先发生在我身上。」
* a/ A9 e& S h9 W e* {( N: e1 ^1 H3 ?8 j$ p+ v, X* q4 q0 f
赌徒恍然大悟，
( k' I# `( A6 g原来他穷极一生 追求技巧，寻找赌局中的些微优势，
$ ~- @# y, C6 f2 G5 z# v* G竟然没有准备 充足的资金来得重要！
5 v5 F7 s) c+ t) q. W& R% x0 G「因此，如果您身上带的是一万枚金币，那赢的想必就会是您了。」3 }* Q# a: y8 Q' F5 m- ]
上帝说完便不见踪影。 ; N% K& ^' ~- d4 n0 m' R7 a
一旦赌局无法再继续下去，拥有再大的优势也没有意义 一枚较容易出现正面的铜板，3 p2 u3 X6 `4 ]& O
若掷铜板1000次，最后结果可能是正面出现550次，反面出现450次，
: T& h" F. F. r2 f& F! i* c4 z) R1000次下来，赌徒可以赚到100枚金币，8 j% M0 R' h( c3 o, T: g7 N
对赌徒十分有利。
- k0 p8 A0 a( w9 }- G5 x+ N2 _( r / q" \' w7 x0 F( j
但要是450次的反面，在一开始就 连续的出现，) D5 R0 w. ^# H+ t' e
在还没掷到1000次之前，; t+ `5 j5 |. R% a% u" m/ u
仅有100枚金币的赌徒便会先破产。+ C+ ^6 ?# ] d1 {0 H" M( Y
$ U1 w5 k8 h6 d7 {
赌徒拥有运气与勇气，但却没有充足的资本实现获利。$ T( L5 F3 s& T5 c* E
$ O$ L9 t( v0 {1 l
事实上，当资本不足时，即使有任何长期优势都难以发挥。
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市场就像是个金钱无限的上帝，投资就如同和上帝赌掷铜板，* f ]' a) R+ o. T4 n9 M
* }. b. }, h/ m 永远必须准备足够的资本，才有可能真正实现长期的获利喔！
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