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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
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! g; g! H4 K( k, @* O4 A. ~4 T认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
' m Q" \( p' t1 i! B( e( w6 K$ W# |; V9 M3 z! G& n
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富
. A. O3 p" s( _5 V k0 ^9 _& F
2 C$ @0 \9 q0 y8 w. _的千禧一代。& R- `' p* I: X N
从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB* U2 \) N7 f4 H2 F; d
) Y6 _: L# J- k( [! P5 B. K4 B5 b
的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“ j% i0 p6 s7 E- X/ O2 \* z; d' X3 J
- b4 D2 ]% v7 S+ O4 W 时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加
* A; \, j0 l) f9 [1 u; h/ B1 S+ j/ k
/ q5 \) n& i" s( @+ j, ?" F( e" _密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
]4 s4 r0 k' M, {, Z4 m( t/ Z0 q# S% Z1 G @% b
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成
. `5 h$ Q5 c$ D* C# n- V3 g# V. j' x6 X, O9 Q
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》5 P) ?# I3 k6 `7 E& E8 p
5 m- p. a0 }3 [% u) o5 k7 o报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；( q/ d: [/ \( H/ f- L
0 l R+ q* W+ h/ L/ M
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
8 ]& l O, y, [% g+ S' g) V% d# F8 M9 E& e# u" X
ETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。3 P. C7 |1 h9 a1 x
- w I8 J+ [2 G' r) o据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降, Y9 V3 N; p5 _
* D0 h( s- F$ _: v" n2 w$ Y息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。
" {0 R6 L+ q& D6 K" F3 s5 ` ?* E0 R; |* q! d
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密, }( A; y/ x6 T/ Y" J4 T
- O& t/ T- m5 G+ Z' G世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富; ]/ g. j( Z- T/ e w
' N* Y( j6 @! T ?9 g) f传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不4 }1 Y/ O3 {$ f+ L# U9 y: o$ x) H
) {4 L8 z" Q8 i0 g* p1 ]
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一
& a U& B# n- A/ F+ Z1 }0 j( H, L/ T* V7 G2 s q0 F, r3 l
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成" o! A w5 t; O X# I6 a6 P8 m
' h6 e6 t4 s Z1 _本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体
: ?# h! y: W+ a4 }& B e
) u3 t0 y! L4 y3 d W/ V系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货" L) N, f! {. L
. f3 b7 i% M! u- v' `% H币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致
0 j4 \" t8 e' ~1 c3 z; N
- U: B8 n3 s5 a% ~6 P未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富
$ \# x+ q5 H% Z4 M3 \1 _# C) D% ~# r. n8 X
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。" ?7 s6 K$ }. R
' E) a5 Z( Y q" |6 \ D* t9 N+ X _/ D/ q, v1 U4 d, a7 u6 T
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