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一 概述/ j+ b+ ]8 P2 u6 G V2 F( g8 C
光环效应是美国心理学家提出的一个概念，人在对事物的认知总是习惯性的以偏概全，再从整体印象对局部做出判断，重视经验和印象，而不是客观的认识。
9 N1 [1 @* @. t+ \! K足球博彩里，博彩公司的开盘就经常会利用到这一心理弱点，进行投注诱导，或者维持上下盘的平衡。
2 q0 G; f& t _$ Q5 R& w& K二 举例! r7 E6 ?" V3 q9 [) }3 Z
例如做完结束的意甲联赛第20轮的比赛中，热那亚在主场1-0战胜了国际米兰，依照博彩公司开出的国际米兰客场让半球的盘口来看，这是一个不大不小的冷门。) x/ p0 Z. y5 C6 R2 g/ z
而通过两队的数据对比，我们可以发现，这样的结果是合情合理的。1 E5 r( C4 ^0 |' z% n
A 热那亚主场战绩4胜3平2负，国际米兰客场战绩3胜4平2负。9 i6 x4 F! X4 R- r" u+ F! U# Q" K
B 热那亚近六场联赛1胜2平3负，国际米兰近六场联赛1胜3平2负。
* h& |; C4 I; A/ @$ Y/ j/ HC 热那亚近六场联赛得失5比9，国际米兰近六场联赛得失8比10。, }* Z* B, o* y. m2 Y
以上面的数据对比博彩公司国际米兰客场让半球的盘口来看，热那亚赢盘的下盘将是一个非常有价值的投注选项。% v0 i9 x- C Q7 g2 y* T* B2 A+ T
而博彩公司之所以选择了国际米兰让深盘的开盘，就是利用了光环效应。
( G6 B! Y& x0 k" E9 q- PA 国际米兰是意甲传统强队，热那亚则是常年的保级弱旅。
- \- O4 }9 S! T5 S9 ]B 国际米兰名列意甲第5，热那亚则位列联赛中游。0 I1 J9 f3 Y( f, U$ y8 `9 O
C 国际米兰在历史交手成绩上有绝对的优势存在，近7年从未负于过热那亚。
8 a# q r+ \6 l( P9 u实际上国际米兰在意甲接近半程之后，由于主力前锋的受伤，以及马扎里3后卫战术被对手针对造成进攻和防守两端发挥都不稳定。
& N5 L1 M2 z& _8 ~" R1 Y U3 `! l球队整体实力已经不及赛季开始阶段，更没有之前几个赛季的优势。
+ \# t; t0 y- f* N. s1 i三 总结
: C) p) M5 `" ]2 h9 G k* l一次科学的投注应该选择建立在正确理解获胜概率和赔率价值的基础之上，而非直觉、情感或者凭借印象做出的强弱评估。. b8 e7 E) t% N' F( @% @
永远不要相信主流媒体的观点，最佳的途径是统计更多的客观数据并且把样本容量最大化，比如说利用泊松分布一类的数据统计公式。
7 _, h4 G( M; U& R战胜自己的心理弱点，用一个真正科学有效的统计评估体系才能在足球博彩中更稳定的盈利。
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