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[lastpost] => 2816407 今年降息最多1次！美股全线暴跌！难道比特币又要跌到6万？（转） 1774231163 爬格子的瘦书生
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[虚拟币交流]
美股上涨，长端利率上升打击BTC流动性资产，今年牛市难以实现（转）
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美股和比特币的逻辑不同:美股上涨主要是由Gamma对冲和CTA推动，不太受联储降息与否的影响。一旦不确定性被解决，美股往往会直线拉升。2 B$ F4 p! c+ S" h, g* J/ U
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降息对比特币流动性资产受影响更大，但不仅限于此。降息影响的是短期利率，而长端利率对风险资产影响更大。例如，一次0.25个百分点的升息，
% M% u& {& u3 |, c0 U' w9 v" Y1 ~( w! z3 q" l0 m; j" ^2 R
若10年期利率上升25个基点，其影响力远大于单次升息。七大公司股票不依靠流动性支撑，而是由引力支撑。例如，英伟达的PE长期保持稳定，主
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要依靠每股收益（EPS）和AI业务的增长推动。
$ `5 ?2 Q: g; z$ c/ R市场上承担风险的资产分为活期资产和长期风险资产。活期资金投向银行存款、短期债券等，长期资金投向比特币、股票、长期国债等。当10年期: ~7 g8 Y2 B; [+ w% O
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国债收益率高于股票收益率时，投资者更倾向于购买国债而非股票。如果这种情况发生，表明市场处于晚期阶段，风险资产特别是比特币将受重创。6 ^% P6 d! M& _; {* B# e, e9 H
$ z- p5 Y7 q8 _" D: P+ |长端利率上升对所有风险资产都有较大影响，尤其是比特币等流动性风险资产。3 R" [9 P4 P. W5 o1 K. y! C& Z
8 f$ b' ]) V6 _7 S6 @" ?, G( N C美国从去年开始大规模发债，但经济依然强劲，利率在5.25-5.5%。通常情况下，升息会导致经济衰退，但美国经济的增长本质已改变。经济增长依赖! x. ?% }2 R5 l+ A% h% q2 N0 t/ F
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于私营部门和ZF债务的加权平均。& J3 K! o* R( t; M" c+ _7 m$ z
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; ?0 I# F# G: l美国ZF通过持续发债来支撑经济，但这也导致市场供需矛盾加剧。2023年美国债券市场的DV01 约为7亿美元，今年预计将增加到10亿美元。财政部+ y' H! i I7 G0 p q% b7 ]7 c
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被迫发行长期债券，而市场上长期债券的买方主要是高盛那些对冲基金，这些基金通过短期低利率资金购买长期高利率债券来赚取利差。然而，当前长
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短期利率倒挂，缺乏买家，导致长期债券需求不足。预计10年期长端利率接近5%，这对比特币和黄金等无收益的流动性资产是巨大打击。比特币目前) W2 y2 ?1 W; F6 T. F! {( \
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依靠套利维持，但在流动性减少的情况下，山寨币可能归零。总体来看，流动性资产难以进入牛市，只有当长端利率下降，市场才可能迎来转机，但今
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年难以看到这种改变。2 A# b! n4 t' |% r) I* r
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