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[lastpost] => 2794153 比特币重回 9 万美元大关——这会是比特币 2026 年的真正价格底部吗？（转） 1767504799 whywhy
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[虚拟币交流]
2025“避险之王”争霸赛：“数字黄金”有望跑赢实物黄金？（转）
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4 b+ l. N. U' Q A4 t 截至上周五，黄金的年内涨幅依旧一骑绝尘，但专家认为，这是一场马拉松，而非百米冲刺，比特币的“机构采用”才刚刚开始……5 a: R) s* g- H; M
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尽管黄金和比特币两种资产在2025年都出现了上涨并屡创新高，但截至上周五，黄金的表现仍然领先。当天早些时候，在一份美国裁定1公斤和100盎司金条将被征收关税的报告发布后，黄金期货价格一度上涨，但随后有报道称特朗普ZF计划澄清进口金条将被豁免，金价随之收窄了涨幅。2 l8 ^% v$ N* `* ~9 I C
/ V. v) J% |2 u2 l; _0 O/ ^) E) K 尽管如此，黄金今年的优势可能反映了一个更广泛的趋势，即加剧的地缘ZZ紧张局势和关税担忧，已使传统的避险资产比新的替代品更具优势。加密货币的多头们长期以来一直将比特币宣传为“数字黄金”，认为它最终可能扮演类似的角色。但分析师表示，就目前而言，黄金作为危机对冲工具的悠久传统正在占据上风。) k4 C& j& D3 C7 \! K) x m+ l( ^( H
8 w$ D) ~9 o+ m/ C0 ~" a9 V# r 美国银行资产管理集团的高级投资策略总监Rob Haworth说，“今年，黄金无疑比比特币等加密货币更多地受益于避险资金的流入。”
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他指出，比特币仍然倾向于与风险资产亦步亦趋，这限制了其在不确定时期的吸引力。: e2 p6 e1 z* Y [# L' q
# y% x1 p# Q) [0 J/ s: q Currency.com的首席执行官Konstantin Anissimov认为，黄金得到了全球央行采购的强力支撑，为应对今年的地缘ZZ紧张局势、关税和其他宏观经济不确定性，央行们已加快了购买速度。! i; R Z) D ^
1 ~: U% C0 {4 @* r: C5 x “我认为总体主题是不确定性。当存在不确定性时，主权国家会涌向他们最了解的东西——一种经受住了千年风暴而非仅仅数十年或数百年考验的资产，”Anissimov在一次电话采访中说。
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! Z, ^" h# T- B' n4 z9 G 与黄金形成对比的是，没有哪个主要ZF将比特币作为储备资产，尽管Anissimov认为它具有作为价值储存手段的强大长期潜力。美国总统特朗普在3月份签署了一项行政命令，建立联邦比特币储备，但此后鲜有细节公布。Anissimov还指出，企业已越来越多地将这种加密货币加入其财资储备。6 P$ _6 v7 e( o7 S" C, x# g
4 o0 A" o" f+ g- l" L6 n 根据道琼斯市场数据，截至上周五，交易最活跃的黄金期货合约年初至今已上涨30.8%，比特币年初至今上涨了近28%。
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* o9 q9 n0 `" N0 k5 S 两者的表现都超过了美国股市，标普500指数在周五收盘时仅略低于历史最高收盘点位，今年迄今上涨了8.6%。道琼斯工业平均指数今年迄今仅上涨3.8%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数则上涨了11%，上周五再创历史收盘新高。& {0 V8 J- G8 q; ^; ~: l
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下一步是什么？6 n+ _+ d; w6 W+ E- c' P: v$ U
& `# S& J+ x* e; p Currency Research Associates的分析师在上周五的一份报告中写道，从技术角度来看，比特币的短期势头已转为负面，而黄金则保持积极，这表明未来一周金价有进一步上涨的潜力。% y# G) f! w! n. p. N/ t6 t% y* C
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从更长远来看，Castle Funds的总裁兼首席投资官Peter Eberle表示，他认为随着机构采用的增长，比特币的上行空间比黄金更大。
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2 O$ I5 C$ y% N Eberle说，“机构资本流向比特币才刚刚开始。在监管日渐明朗和ZF态度更友好的背景下，我们正处于机构采用的最早阶段。”" r" ^) V9 `, k
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