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[lastpost] => 2782189 比特币跌至 9.3 万美元，引发剧烈波动和“极度恐慌”：接下来会发生什么？（转） 1763387259 小钱儿
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[虚拟币交流]
当前市场：为什么BTC横盘但Altcoin却在“流血”？
[复制链接]
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在最近的几次走势中，我们很容易注意到：BTC横盘（震荡）在稳定的价格区间内。
- E2 Z4 \* p1 I1 E' dAltcoin持续下跌，尽管比特币尚未出现剧烈下跌。
3 m) r0 o' @0 l, n- ~ ^越南市场的USDT汇率仍然很高，显示出对稳定币的需求并未减弱。1 m( [% ~: }0 s& J: a
你们可以比较两张图表：altcoin/BTC和Altcoin/USDT的相对强弱指数。
4 q* s) z, Z4 }6 R从九月初开始。上涨时，alt/btc弱于usdt，因为atl/usdt对冲使用了期货杠杆，而下跌时则强于usdt，因为直接通过现货交易。' a( w4 V) o4 y9 f7 V l
alt/btc
% R) g0 u" l' q& ^& @4 aalt/usdt
% r1 @) s3 _9 Y1 l3 S# N那么，发生了什么？. H: |& g H1 T0 ~# ~/ g
1. 大户轮换资金
) B# O3 G! v" K3 g3 N: S% L与其直接将山寨币抛售为USDT（会导致alt/USDT图表大幅下滑），大户和市场做市商选择将山寨币转换为BTC或ETH。
8 s" @7 P1 A2 ] N这种方式使得alt/USDT对看起来仍然相对稳定。& S3 B% k& x8 Y) t4 H4 p3 y
但实际上，如果观察ALT/BTC或ALT/ETH对，我们会发现山寨币贬值非常严重。
) C! n9 G- M* G4 |6 W2. 市场的防御心理
( p$ G8 G3 l+ @! X. d1 P6 _投资者正在缩小风险，优先选择BTC和ETH——这些资产流动性大，波动性小。
# H6 q8 M- C# u) ?这解释了为什么资金没有流入山寨币，导致它们逐渐疲弱。( y n4 R9 `; q1 j; [
3. 需要关注的信号# B1 a4 e! {/ c" x9 X
BTC主导率和ETH主导率有上升趋势→确认资金流向大币种。
' Z. f k. _: r% H) _山寨币市场总市值持续下降→显示山寨币仍在被抽血。
! T# j9 K( w- I. u( A6 o. l" q% M5 `6 xUSDT保持高价→稳定币需求依然强劲，USDT主导率仍高，但尚未出现资金愿意冒险回流的迹象。
: K( D6 i. ?# G9 V& C* ?4 ^& l4. 对投资者的意义- y# @8 D6 G1 R3 f
在这个阶段，缺乏新买盘的山寨币难以形成独立波动。
T0 f7 q* R8 h6 s4 t如果BTC横盘时间过长后再大幅波动，山寨币可能会被“踩”出一个波段。
; Y( [' i% z/ G安全策略：关注资金流动，避免过多持有弱势山寨币，集中于顶级币或在强烈信号出现后再大举投资山寨币。5 m( ], f3 _( |, M) E8 {9 e
结论：市场正进入大户收集BTC/ETH流动性的阶段，山寨币只是资金轮换周期中的“猎物”。散户投资者需要保持警觉，不要被alt/USDT尚未崩盘的感觉迷惑，以为这是机会。/ Q! ], b+ `; b. W' {, {0 b+ a
#加密货币#- ], F; X; z; x( i5 a/ ?+ U
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市场操作有点阴谋论，大户在搞鬼转移资金，小散步森严防范保身。 |
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这波山寨币被割得血淋淋的，BTC装死不动，小币全在裸奔，庄家明显在抽水换仓呢 |
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