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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。2 u& L' s* o! @: R Z
; L* W! G( g( t' h但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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1 o6 @% Q+ E6 b# i; o; `: u+ NUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？3 t6 e$ l! R# m- e) s
: k& K* z, s5 l: K8 j2 I开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
5 E5 ]: f/ t9 y8 L+ U; N2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。+ h: _ K: ]; e5 n. Y' x
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来源：Alphractal) S! z2 l) [/ V) @3 {! e* J$ U
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。- ]2 k! B! `& q$ ?) V
+ A" W% Y) r+ d# ?尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了) ~- ?0 v5 O; o; x+ e, U0 L" k
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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' V9 y9 a# S' S" I! Z: }7 a& j/ a来源：X- `9 T5 Y9 }; }" h
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根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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" @7 W5 C9 Q9 n" C+ HBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。8 z. N! Q, m: b$ j. K1 v/ \9 j
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。+ p3 T& F7 y( {. |. [. y7 w
" Z$ M' U* n$ |8 g6 `# ?- G空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力; s% U' u* F6 k& t6 c# k: p8 X
经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。6 c" Y$ \) l+ ]9 S1 R! W
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来源：TradingView
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0 H6 j: R2 @% m) U Y2 [日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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6 |0 l/ q) p- j1 l& {突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。* K+ \2 t" o% d' a5 T
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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