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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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, ]+ y: Q: R5 E2 @! K% `但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。4 E, n$ S, h- Y3 n
7 u/ R; ^9 o4 a' Q! C! DUptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？! t( K# X/ E6 A) |
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开局艰难，但历史看好牛市! U( p/ E$ P( e5 S
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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' H) W; h3 V& P! ]1 b来源：Alphractal. z/ l+ r: a! J
g5 b+ k% ?! H- M/ L15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。$ K( @. b. L5 g) p; g
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。
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事情变得有趣了
% P) i! i/ @3 N, ]8 M! qBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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% \; x9 E% x& x4 s来源：X0 S3 \/ V6 C9 `! s- \, G" P Y
- G4 s- D, p/ S根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。
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9 a4 {: h3 J& b) bBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。' o/ _( j' L5 a
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正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
9 i' H' T- J; B经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。
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来源：TradingView* x0 O: [, Y4 p0 I. a3 S
2 j5 }( b2 i4 Q+ q" O日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。& q& W: Q5 L1 J' f9 Y0 k h
6 r) Y+ x3 k/ S然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。' h1 L ~) C: C9 o" A% m, j
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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