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[lastpost] => 2783810 比特币从超卖低点反弹 2%——这是反弹行情的开始吗？（转） 1763988764 爱美的女人
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[虚拟币交流]
波兰加密货币领域知名人士称超级周期已死，比特币已回归经典熊市。（转）
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比特币再次成为市场周期性讨论的焦点，波兰加密货币影响者菲尔·科涅奇尼认为，目前的下跌完全符合他之前的预测。6 U1 M1 g9 Z4 \$ H% S8 Z
. a# h+ N4 Q0 c他强调，比特币的走势符合历史规律，市场意识到牛市结束为时已晚。他认为，当前的熊市是周期性波动的自然组成部分，不应被忽视。
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8 g1 L( [1 ?- H加密货币市场正经历一段艰难时期，但在菲尔看来，一切都在按部就班地进行。8 D2 g$ ]4 h' D$ n y' D1 h8 r
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比特币熊市
* F9 L% `' o; Q* F! J5 Y* l m菲尔·科涅奇尼在视频开头就指出，当前市场在四年周期方面表现得完全符合教科书式的规律。他声称：比特币目前股价约为 85,000 美元的股票，其走势遵循了此前已多次出现的模式。
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在下一部分，他强调了历史因素。高峰每次峰值出现的时间都比上一次更早。菲尔解释说，2017年的峰值出现在12月，2021年出现在11月，而目前的峰值则出现在10月。在他看来，这些数据点证实了市场的周期性。* X7 I/ z9 }9 a4 g4 E1 g
' {3 g6 L3 ]. m# J0 G他还指出，比特币目前正进入一个自然的下跌阶段。他补充说，尽管这些信号很明显，但许多人却置之不理。/ _& w/ r2 o9 H0 m7 C& G3 O
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菲尔也评论了比特币的主导地位在他看来，这种加密货币的增长速度远未达到预期。与此同时，规模较小的山寨币却遭遇巨额亏损，年跌幅通常高达 60% 至 80%。这凸显了市场的真正疲软。6 F, B3 s. r+ o
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菲尔的关键警告4 N: T/ X# L2 E5 F" d' d& I! J$ c/ ~' s
菲尔·科涅奇尼公开表示超循环之前的解释是错误的。在他看来，市场已经发出明确的信号，表明周期性波动仍在继续。他强调，忽视这些数据是不明智的。
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与此同时，比特币价格已跌破50周移动平均线。菲尔认为，这是一个典型的熊市信号。然而，投资者也不应忽视死猫反弹的可能性。
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这位波兰网红警告投资者远离……山寨币。这是因为投资山寨币的风险太高。更何况，许多山寨币从未从之前的熊市中恢复过来。
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宏观经济学、ETF以及投资者关于比特币的关键问题) F7 S( W/ e! ]
菲尔讨论了宏观经济他认为这种情况非常令人担忧。这表明收益率曲线已经倒挂，而收益率曲线倒挂在历史上总是经济衰退的先兆。: T9 ?1 _8 D. M1 J" W6 C8 p
% i( H* J/ e- J4 t; @- w3 J2 d$ @他提到了美国人的债务问题和日益增多的公司破产案例，并着重强调了中美贸易战带来的风险。他认为，这些因素严重制约了市场的增长潜力。
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然后他讨论了以下话题：交易所交易基金（ETF）他解释说，他们的购买是牛市开始的主要驱动力之一。
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然而，他指出，如果宏观经济形势没有改善，仅靠他们的行动是不够的。菲尔表示，标普500指数和比特币之间的相关性已经变得一边倒。这意味着股市下跌会拖累加密货币，但股市上涨却无法给予它们同样的支撑。
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这位波兰网红总结道：
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比特币对宏观经济形势有反应，而宏观经济形势看起来不太好。' f3 z2 I. ~! M1 t$ {6 i
山寨币出现持久反弹的可能性极低。. Q5 @5 y' }1 x) ^! \) x
这个循环看起来和之前的循环一样。5 F% V; H1 P+ [+ S; {
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