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[虚拟币交流]
贝莱德斥资1.25亿美元购买比特币为何令比特币交易员感到不安？（转）
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加密货币市场正面临压力。! g7 f6 Y- z5 p9 @8 A. _# z
. X4 T* Y1 R2 ~6 f截至发稿时，比特币 (比特币) 在未能守住 94,000 美元上方后下跌 2.6%，至 89,596 美元左右的低点。与此同时，以太坊 [以太坊] 也出现类似走势，下跌 3.72% 至 3,038 美元。
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7 f' g+ g) b' K+ P此次剧烈回调加剧了散户投资者的恐慌情绪。然而，在恐慌背后，机构巨头们却在增加投资，加倍下注。4 w* i0 L9 ?8 |. z' d7 ~
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贝莱德存入了比特币和以太坊6 w. P, [) B! K* ?/ ? i' t% A
12月5日，贝莱德已存1.255亿美元BTC以及价值 250 万美元的以太坊到 Coinbase。
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# v4 k' l C3 p& C0 x0 s/ d分析师泰德·皮洛斯警告说，这可能预示着机构抛售潮的到来，并可能加剧市场的不稳定性。
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他说：
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8 G* [+ m/ b: B N5 I“销量还会继续增长吗？”
3 d+ P' Y0 B% G# I# w8 r3 S- ]" x4 a1 C, I+ W) ]
因此，问题来了：目前的下跌是进一步抛售的信号，还是仅仅是精明的投资者在悄悄地为这轮由 ETF 驱动的周期设定了新的、更高的底线？& L5 o* n& B" [5 C0 M% r1 X" {
8 V E- |) H8 [: k此举为何引发担忧？
8 m* m6 n$ J4 X, W比特币近期价格下跌，未能守住 94,000 美元的关口，这不可避免地将人们的注意力集中在大型机构的动向上，特别是贝莱德数百万美元的比特币存款。ETH到 Coinbase。( v& r# u0 v: \" ~7 F
7 L. B* F* J% e9 ?5 L9 N
在加密货币市场中，向交易所的大额转账很快就会被视为看跌信号，主要是因为存在清算风险，因为这会增加可出售的供应量。
+ J: x9 z- y% }6 [1 X
( {9 \6 T% U. Q由于 ETF 资金流出和宏观经济的不确定性已经加剧了市场的紧张情绪，市场对此类波动反应强烈。9 e; f; o# x8 q2 y
0 L# d( X- B' A# o7 ~; w6 q因此，如果机构真的进行清算，新增供应可能会压低价格，过去的一些案例也加剧了这种担忧，这些案例表明，大额存款先于价格调整出现。" M" g. I+ P/ r, p% {0 |
; S& H! t' W0 }) f& X! }, B" {对于散户投资者而言，看到大型基金将资产转移到交易平台通常预示着即将出现问题。8 [: B& V+ g4 ~" e
1 l$ |8 P& T4 q0 g( H; G" j1 C$ e然而，这种恐慌忽略了一个关键点：管理数十亿美元的 ETF 通常需要进行与即将出售无关的例行转移。
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还会有更多销售吗？' u5 m) a: T. `2 g
然而，仅凭定金并不能自动转化为后续销售。
$ g0 m. A: l. s% a. o6 W
M% ^6 u* D. y- i+ ^- m1 `对于像贝莱德这样的 ETF 发行商而言，此类基金变动通常反映了日常运营需求、托管调整、赎回处理、再平衡或其他内部工作流程。
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l. u a; R# T' u6 y/ x5 O贝莱德依靠 Coinbase Prime 进行机构托管和大宗交易，这体现了一种系统性的策略，而不是恐慌性抛售。9 V+ W) L5 K% v3 f$ f4 ^+ U C
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通常情况下，这种大额转账是 ETF 创建和赎回过程中的常规步骤，旨在保持价格一致。+ t% K7 |- ? o. [: m
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即便如此，技术指标仍然表明短期前景看跌。
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截至撰稿时，BTC 的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 和移动平均收敛/发散指标 (MACD) 均低于其中性水平，证实了短期至中期内抛售动能的主导地位。
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来源：Trading View
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要彻底扭转市场局面，从“熊市主导”转变为“牛市突破”，比特币必须成功突破并守住 98,000 美元的关键阻力位。) ^0 q! C1 _& v/ O) e
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在此之前，市场技术面依然低迷，容易受到波动影响。
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' x! t* m! F9 m N* L5 e最后想说的话
; p7 N6 w0 `8 ?零售市场出现恐慌，但机构市场的行为表明，它们对市场波动的反应要审慎得多。
- D" E) X2 Y# z4 W5 D技术指标短期内仍然对空头有利，比特币需要重新夺回 98,000 美元才能真正扭转走势。8 J! i0 o" p2 p" I
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