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[lastpost] => 2795273 基于 Polymarket 的交易 Bot 项目被黑客攻击 1767835026 比推快讯
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币安报告：2026 年美联储加速降息的预期利好比特币，1 月或为看跌势头的转折点
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比推消息，币安研究院在加密市场报告中指出，尽管美联储采取宽松政策，但受投资者谨慎情绪影响，加密市场持续下跌。不过，随着资产管理公司持续增持，比特币和以太坊的市场主导地位不断增强。1 月可能成为看跌势头的一个转折点，因为投资者考虑从估值过高的资产类别重新转投加密货币。
2025 年，在货币宽松、AI 需求以及向“大宗商品控制”转变等因素的共同推动下，金属成为表现突出的资产类别。尽管比特币也受益于类似的宏观利好因素，但由于缺乏“战略资产溢价”，其在第四季度表现出现分化。然而，这种分化可能是暂时的：随着美国立法推动将战略比特币储备制度化，并可能从持有扣押资产转向积极的财政采购，比特币的估值框架有望与战略金属的估值框架重新接轨。
市场参与者预计，受关税冲击、劳动力市场脆弱以及领导层转向鸽派等因素推动，2026 年宽松政策将加速推进，同时要求更高的长期溢价，以补偿“财政主导”以及即将到来的超过 50 万亿美元的债务压力。收益率曲线陡峭化表明市场不认可美联储“软着陆”的说法，这为比特币创造了绝佳机会，使其既能利用短期廉价流动性的涌入，又能受益于长期法定信用侵蚀。
自推出以来，山寨币 ETF 大多吸引了资金净流入，累计资金流入超过 20 亿美元，其中 XRP 和 SOL 领跑，其他资产也贡献了较小但稳定的资金流入。相比之下，自 10 月以来，比特币和以太坊现货 ETF 持续出现资金净流出，这凸显出随着市场动能放缓，边际需求出现分化。
尽管目前尚处早期阶段，但更多山寨币 ETF 获批以及持续的资金流入可能会日益影响流动性分布，特别是如果更广泛的市场资金流入重新加速的话。2025 年，六种新推出的稳定币市值突破 10 亿美元。随着稳定币在全球范围内持续得到应用，其相关指标正日益成为衡量全球金融活动的重要风向标。
风险提示： 本新闻涉及的内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。依据发布的信息以及所表达的意见行事所造成的一切后果由行事者自负。文章链接 |
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