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[体育菠菜心得方法] 合理运用投注金达致利润最大化
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1#
于任何博彩人士都一样,他们最关心的话题就是如何将手上的资金最大化,如何做到呢?以下的文章,就是为了解答这个问题而撰写的。& b! u& S$ C! `) ]3 T

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西甲:皇家马德里对西维尔--1.80 3.30 4.10--IBCBET沙巴早盘赔率
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/ w7 o4 k( y) ^/ {  J以西维尔近况及交锋记录计算,个人觉得:1 T, d$ P1 K" C' z4 {
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皇马获胜的概率有42% 平局的概率只有4% 西维尔获胜的概率有54% * v1 D. j2 M8 A! y8 J, S

) Y6 n2 y7 b  h& a8 A, c! S5 N很明显,我倾向于西维尔获得胜利,假设我有10,000元,我应该投注多少才合理呢?
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' s8 x1 O% ?% d( a1 M0 w答案是:3916元!(不能多也不能少!!)
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以上答案从哪里来?如何做到合理运用您手上的筹码,达到博彩利润的最大化?( t- M" Q& e! H/ t

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盈利可能性/ }" W4 E3 S6 z* p

: s) O$ r: k" I9 D1 O对于不少人来说,博彩能盈利的方法无非就是很好的预测能力,神棍一点说,就是未卜先知了。从统计学角度出发,这样的说法有一定的可行性,但绝对不是盈利的全部。我们必须指出,将所有的资金投注到发生机会很低的事件上,是极度愚蠢并且风险很大的。同时,将同样的钱,投注到95%能胜出,但回报只有1%的事件上,依然是傻子行为。
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增值
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* }0 Q# l4 e& h$ Y$ t' _% M许多数学家例如约翰凯利(John Kelly)都大力提倡增值理论。增值的意思就是,赔率和你估计博彩获胜机会的比例。明显地,估计部分全在你的掌握内,这也就是博彩的核心价值所在。& q) G' v4 _! L/ J0 W

$ H7 J- L, o* o1 ?你相信曼联有40%的机会战胜阿仙奴,那因此你觉得以下哪个赔率是合理的呢?2 D- a8 k" |4 l& ]7 j/ ^
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a) 1.4   b) 3.5   c) 1.67   d) 2.5 3 }: C1 h4 u0 G( j' B+ A
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正确答案是D。假设你在曼联身上投注100元,同时曼联有40%可以赢球,那么
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40%的机会你会收到150元的利润0 h1 N" w2 F9 Q$ o) x+ g$ {. B
60%的机会你会一无所有
; ^! D- t8 V, a, t" X( n预计盈利40% x 150 + 60% x -100 = 0
2 w& E; u! g& E0 _+ s% G. C由于预期盈利为0,同时你只有40%的机会取胜,那么2.5的赔率就是合理的。
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% e* B, m" B7 ], K增值只会出现在庄家开出比你预计盈利为高的赔率时候,才能产生。在博彩中,这样的情况也时有出现,因为庄家难以知道你对比赛的理解有多少,你的把握有多大。更重要的是,另外的博彩者有不一样的想法和投注,庄家为了平衡彩池,就必然会调整赔率。类似的情况在时下流行的博彩项目,例如足球,篮球上经常可以见到。资金的投注比例比真正的胜出机会更能影响赔率。2 q, x) F2 o/ \$ Y# F# W! p5 N% h% T

! l+ I; y+ n9 [) Y2 Z2 T基于增值的投注
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凯利公式建议,如果你想获利,就需要到更大的彩池进行投注,增值就是你获胜的或然率和现有的赔率之间的比例。
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  T$ Q7 H# I: a* b6 X0 T2 f- z公式为:A = P - (1 - P )/(O - 1)
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  @: q9 ]% U; o; t3 g9 jA=博彩资金
, z7 N$ U2 U% x8 wP=获胜机会6 I& \. r2 m5 Y6 Y! O
O=总获得回报(包括投注本金)
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首先必须注意的是,如果P=1,也就是必胜,那么你就应该将所有家当变卖,马上倾家荡产投注。注意,这个假设只有真的100%必胜才有价值。
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好的,我们再次回到天朝队的例子,天朝队依然有40%机会获胜,但以下将以不同的赔率计算。' S5 |2 y$ G+ e% r/ O& z+ ]# J
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1 公平博彩(40%机会获胜,赔率2.5)
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A = 0.4 - (0.6)/(1.5)
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2 n. V) P1 ~2 o; _0 iA=0; n- O1 q7 q' G# M+ j) H( C

8 Y" S* ~8 t& \& c5 i结论,这里没肉吃,不下注也罢
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% U/ v/ r0 z: v- }) M; M2 合理增值 (40%机会获胜,赔率3)5 ]  ?& j' o. d4 R- t
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(2)
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A=0.1
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, R: ]$ y) y5 T) b, A, G结论,将你可投注资金的10%投注入去
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3 负增值  (40%机会获胜,赔率2)/ W: O" o. g. ^! C: \. r; ^) Z5 }
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A= 0.4 - (0.6)/(1)
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5 \2 V1 [! Q! |' rA= -0.2 ' B  I3 v) u5 i5 ?
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结论,正常人就不要下注了,觉得钱多不如捐给孤儿院或者直接捐给我为好
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第三个例子很有趣,但凯利先生并没有将自己作为受注方的情况归纳入公式,但是否可以将受注的情况也归纳进去呢?那就留给读者自己研究了
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2#
谢谢楼主的分享,楼主辛苦了
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3#
算是分析得非常深刻了!谢谢
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4#
谢谢楼主分享好文章,
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
谢谢楼主的心得分享
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