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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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4 F" `) W5 _* |+ H# ]$ g只跟踪一个联赛. Y! D& a" p8 O+ G& z
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* H* j4 j! a% C, ], s全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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& k0 m' V" M- |1 S1 `/ K- y偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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( s1 \/ A3 r/ z9 ]' Q5 A1 J4 Z方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，+ j$ Z; Y# p. M8 o

. M6 _3 _9 A, A7 x, y3 ^. p* p而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，; H) W6 I* [5 v9 F1 F
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。
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) Q- i9 M6 Q* U5 @$ D+ W理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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: E+ \5 m1 G3 N0 g/ {排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，* X  ?' O. j) d* q' S( V
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，
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这比买国债存银行合算。0 k# e: I" d$ `3 d" d- r" I( E' O
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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9 s3 G$ d9 a9 |4 H4 g放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，; v; L2 u1 F! \4 d  j  \4 K

  V5 Q, A& K1 x2 S就是回避了大的亏损，* \, i5 |+ U3 i$ h" M4 v6 c

: N9 s7 r+ b1 O+ X7 T& L9 I, z大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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