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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲 % a% o+ P6 z: g/ s4 i* D
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只跟踪一个联赛" O1 c5 G1 h( i

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8 w4 j2 V, \; f0 a; h( {1 R2 R全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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: A" c8 g# B7 D! z  n! C$ ]三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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2 U% a0 v" R4 y$ {/ z偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。, I  e9 l- Q; ~( c
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方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）
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8 k, g: v) \& {/ o) U7 I0 h然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，- V5 C; g( z7 |* N/ K

9 R' f4 g: e4 S- R- S3 J就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱
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7 g  k2 v9 y7 B当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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+ X) ]7 c6 p& m" M  M/ Z5 a9 i7 U" h6 Y9 l
亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，
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; E5 H1 I$ H/ R" Q3 g而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。! _2 E: H, a  I

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* E4 L! v7 b/ k& q2 w& ~理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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' K4 Z  s! |" U, C但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，  K3 \; b! ^% d) Z2 B* ]
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这比买国债存银行合算。
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，7 q$ i7 d- Q* Q2 v/ k

9 L  {8 J% h/ N& m) t几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。
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" z5 A( t" ]0 h/ S常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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0 \& y2 M) e4 ^, g% C放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，
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就是回避了大的亏损，
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" {( |- z3 V8 ~% I$ s9 K大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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